PnL all-time+$13.5kvol $473k
PnL 30d−$8,638gains $10.8k · losses $0
PnL 7d−$4,603win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate80.0%adj 56.0% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$23.9kcash n/a
Positions12 / 17open / all-time
Max drawdown−56.5%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 3d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$17.1kbelow peak −$21.4kOct 9
SharpScore inputs
28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 80.0% · shrunk toward 50%40
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable41
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d89
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity44
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yesclosed+$9,744Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · Yesopen+$5,860Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? · Yesclosed+$4,174Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yesopen+$2,747Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yesclosed+$952
Worst markets
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$5,899US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,596Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Noopen−$334US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? · Yesopen−$296US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? · Yesopen−$267
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | Yes | 22.8k | 23.3¢ | 46.5¢ | $10.6k | +$5,299 | +$561 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.4k | 29.3¢ | 13.5¢ | $5,051 | −$5,899 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Yes | 4,999 | 38.6¢ | 76.5¢ | $3,825 | +$1,894 | +$854 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 13.6k | 23.1¢ | 23.5¢ | $3,191 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 787 | 50.5¢ | 99.5¢ | $783 | +$385 | $0 | |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 815 | 48.5¢ | 50.2¢ | $409 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 33 | 64.8¢ | 72.5¢ | $24 | +$2.56 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? | Yes | 15.0k | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$296 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 9,973 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,596 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? | Yes | 6,439 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$255 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | Yes | 3,819 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$267 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | No | 2,076 | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$323 | −$11 |
Recent trades
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