sharpside
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Traders/Rank #8,347

Polba

0xbf7…0cad
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$9.07vol $5,890
PnL 30d−$20gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$0.10win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate94.7%adj 71.8% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$354cash n/a
Positions47 / 66open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.8%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 10mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$96below peak −$164Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 94.7% · shrunk toward 50%80
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable61
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 47

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US government shutdown Saturday?Yes22733¢100¢$227+$152$0
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No3487¢82.9¢$29−$1.41$0
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?Yes5007¢2.2¢$11−$24$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No1162¢94.5¢$11+$3.67$0
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No1195¢100¢$11+$0.53$0
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No1195¢100¢$11+$0.53$0
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?Yes10717¢7.6¢$8.04−$10$0
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes864¢100¢$7.81+$2.81$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3336¢15.5¢$5.15−$6.85$0
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes561¢100¢$5.00+$1.95$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes20012¢2.3¢$4.50−$20$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1730¢22.2¢$3.69−$1.31$0
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No483¢96.6¢$3.49+$0.49$0
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Yes4323¢8¢$3.48−$6.52$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes1146¢28.5¢$3.10−$1.90$0
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No379¢100¢$2.53+$0.53$0
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes6316¢3.9¢$2.41−$7.59$0
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo283¢96.4¢$2.32+$0.32$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes605¢2.5¢$1.47−$1.53$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes177¢90.5¢$1.18+$0.18$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes2434¢4.4¢$1.02−$6.98$0
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?Yes1030¢5.5¢$0.55−$2.45$0
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes387.5¢5.1¢$0.17−$2.83$0
Megaquake by December 31?Yes9808¢0¢$0−$78$0
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Yes40015.9¢0¢$0−$64$0
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes20032¢0¢$0−$64$0
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?No1643.1¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1084.6¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?Yes1051.9¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?Yes10022¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes8023.1¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes717¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Yes608.4¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes569¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Yes4422.9¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes3039¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will a hurricane form by May 31?Yes2114¢0¢$0−$3.00$0
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Yes1729¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?Yes1625¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Yes1560¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?Yes1520¢0¢$0−$3.00$0
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?No1339.3¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes1145¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31?Yes537¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?No543¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?Yes468¢0¢$0−$3.00$0
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes455¢0¢$0−$2.00$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?99¢29$2995%28
BUY NoGPT ads by December 31?95.2¢7$7.0095%28
BUY YesMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?74¢25$1995%28
BUY YesWill Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?53¢15$7.9595%28
BUY NoAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?3.1¢164$5.0095%28
BUY YesWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?97.1¢2$2.0095%28
BUY NoWill Israel strike Gaza on December 6?27.6¢36$1095%28
BUY NoWill Israel strike Gaza on December 6?26¢38$1095%28
BUY YesUS government shutdown Saturday?33¢182$6095%28
BUY YesUS government shutdown Saturday?33¢45$1595%28
BUY YesWill lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? 87¢11$1095%28
BUY YesWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?55¢4$2.0095%28
BUY NoWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?43¢5$2.0095%28
BUY NoGPT ads by December 31?89.6¢2$2.0095%28
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?77¢1$1.0095%28
BUY YesWill Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?93¢2$2.0095%28
BUY YesWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?96.8¢21$2095%28
BUY NoWill Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?79¢3$2.0095%28
BUY YesWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?36¢33$1295%28
BUY NoWill Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?95¢11$1095%28