sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,594

lamyk

0xc00…c095
PnL 10k+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$18.7kvol $492k
PnL 30d+$11.6kgains $6,513 · losses $2,191
PnL 7d+$1,030win rate 7d 73.9%
Win rate55.3%adj 55.1% · 30d 65.2%
Open value$24.0kcash n/a
Positions34 / 533open / all-time
Max drawdown−17.2%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$28.4kbelow peak −$155Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale61
Adjusted win rateraw 55.3% · shrunk toward 50%38
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity83

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 34

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No8,30150¢81¢$6,720+$2,569$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No5,0186¢65.1¢$3,264+$2,964$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No3,57114¢74.5¢$2,661+$2,161$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8,30150¢19.1¢$1,581−$2,569$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No1,71015¢90.5¢$1,548+$1,291$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,58213.6¢73.6¢$1,164+$949$0
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No1,42365.5¢73¢$1,039+$107+$5.82
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes1,15389.4¢89.4¢$1,030+$0.08$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes78186.9¢92.8¢$725+$46$0
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No45882.3¢97.6¢$446+$70$0
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No1,12427.7¢38.5¢$433+$122+$23
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No46166.9¢86¢$397+$88$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?No40047¢98.9¢$395+$207$0
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes40687.1¢84.3¢$342−$12$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?No42847¢76.5¢$328+$126$0
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes36192¢87¢$314−$18$0
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No30272.7¢88¢$266+$46$0
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No46572.1¢56.5¢$263−$73$0
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes27781.7¢77.5¢$215−$12$0
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No24067.6¢87.5¢$210+$48$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes20785.7¢87.7¢$182+$4.22$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No15490.3¢87.5¢$135−$4.35$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?No20526¢51¢$105+$51$0
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes14549¢67¢$97+$26$0
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?No8781¢71¢$62−$8.71$0
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No4977.9¢60.3¢$29−$8.62$0
Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026?No2049¢98.6¢$20+$9.92$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No598.5¢98.8¢$5.01+$0.01−$0.13
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?No688¢69.5¢$4.17−$1.11$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No1,23560.6¢0¢$0−$748+$58
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Yes38122.9¢0¢$0−$87−$25
Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026?Yes2322¢0¢$0−$4.64−$0.18
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Yes16976¢0¢$0−$128−$1.23
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?Yes15020.7¢0¢$0−$31+$11

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.1¢1,600$1,58655%68
BUY NoWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?95.6¢1,256$1,20055%68
BUY NoWill Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.8¢1,113$1,10055%68
SELL YesWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1.4¢2,075$2855%68
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a wolf?94.9¢177$16855%68
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a wolf?90¢25$2355%68
SELL NoWill there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?86.3¢615$53055%68
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?12¢632$7655%68
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?14.5¢632$9255%68
BUY NoWill there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?81.3¢615$50055%68
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?3.5¢1,393$4855%68
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?74¢716$53055%68
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?4.5¢222$9.9855%68
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?32.8¢727$23855%68
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?11¢222$2455%68
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?87.7¢716$62855%68
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?60¢100$6055%68
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?86.2¢1,352$1,16555%68
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?47¢428$20155%68
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?26¢205$5355%68