sharpside
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Zarshka

0xc1c…9656@Vincentnls
PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$17.9kvol $2.29M
PnL 30d−$67gains $9,069 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$41win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate57.4%adj 57.1% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$11.0kcash n/a
Positions133 / 1,816open / all-time
Max drawdown−70.5%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 13d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$15.9kbelow peak −$555Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

52/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale61
Adjusted win rateraw 57.4% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d54
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity30

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes2,00037.6¢61.5¢$1,230+$479$0
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?No4,00057.2¢29.5¢$1,180−$1,109$0
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Yes93441.1¢90.8¢$847+$463+$159
Blue wave in 2026?Yes70070¢86.5¢$605+$116$0
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3,5092.7¢13.8¢$484+$389$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No50062¢86.5¢$433+$123$0
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?No50083¢77.5¢$388−$28$0
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No50062.5¢76¢$380+$68$0
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No50066¢71.5¢$357+$27$0
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No50060.7¢69.5¢$348+$44$0
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?No38757¢80¢$310+$89+$203
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes7018¢40¢$280+$224+$56
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No30087¢91.6¢$275+$14$0
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?No30547.2¢89¢$271+$128+$51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No50053¢51.6¢$258−$7.25+$239
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?No26088.6¢98¢$255+$24$0
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Yes1,50039¢15¢$225−$360$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No20086.5¢95.5¢$191+$18$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No20080.5¢89¢$178+$17$0
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?No20039.9¢86.7¢$173+$94$0
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Yes3,41028.9¢5¢$170−$816$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No20075.5¢77.5¢$155+$4.00$0
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes1,00013¢13.5¢$135+$5.00$0
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes3,2006.1¢3.8¢$120−$75$0
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No16260¢68¢$110+$13$0
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Yes20055¢52.5¢$105−$5.00$0
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No50041.2¢20¢$100−$106$0
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No37739.1¢26.5¢$100−$47$0
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No10088¢96.9¢$97+$8.90$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No10070¢95.5¢$95+$25$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No10055¢95¢$95+$40$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?No20082.2¢45.5¢$91−$73$0
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No10040¢88.5¢$89+$49$0
Maduro guilty of all counts?No11940.8¢73.5¢$88+$39$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No60081.9¢13.7¢$82−$409$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No10080¢76.5¢$77−$3.50+$6.00
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No8073.5¢95.5¢$76+$18$0
Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes92846.7¢8¢$74−$359+$8.97
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?No8083.5¢90.5¢$72+$5.60$0
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?No8092¢90.4¢$72−$1.28$0
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes2,0003.5¢2.6¢$51−$19$0
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?No10080¢46.5¢$46−$33$0
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?No10080¢43.5¢$44−$37$0
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No50076¢8¢$40−$340$0
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?No3277.3¢96.2¢$31+$6.01+$33
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No3885¢71.8¢$27−$5.07+$88
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes52.4k0.7¢0.1¢$26−$330$0
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Yes20052.5¢11.5¢$23−$82$0
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes54851.9¢4¢$22−$263+$80
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?Yes14843¢14¢$21−$43$0
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Yes11024¢8.5¢$9.35−$17$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?Yes10059¢8¢$8.00−$51$0
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes8070¢9.5¢$7.60−$48$0
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?Yes10078¢6.5¢$6.50−$72$0
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?No4371.4¢9.3¢$4.01−$27$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?No7,56750¢0¢$0−$3,783$0
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?No2,10032.7¢0¢$0−$687$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No2,00083.5¢0¢$0−$1,670+$220
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?Yes1,25010¢0¢$0−$125−$3.38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No1,15058¢0¢$0−$667+$62
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?Yes1,05327¢0¢$0−$284$0
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?No1,00046¢0¢$0−$460−$12
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?No1,0009¢0¢$0−$90$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No1,00031¢0¢$0−$310$0
UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)Dan Hooker1,00020¢0¢$0−$200−$8.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No1,00083¢0¢$0−$830$0
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0007.4¢0¢$0−$74$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes1,00012.4¢0¢$0−$124$0
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0005.2¢0¢$0−$52$0
Wimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya JointSerena Williams1,00045¢0¢$0−$450−$7.42
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?Yes1,0008¢0¢$0−$80−$2.21
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?No1,00035.8¢0¢$0−$358$0
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?Yes1,0007¢0¢$0−$70$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No1,00069¢0¢$0−$690$0
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?Yes1,0007¢0¢$0−$70−$1.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No1,00055¢0¢$0−$550$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No1,00039¢0¢$0−$390$0
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes1,00014¢0¢$0−$140+$255
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?No81213¢0¢$0−$106$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No80030.5¢0¢$0−$244$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes80025.5¢0¢$0−$204$0
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No80086.5¢0¢$0−$692$0
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?No80013.1¢0¢$0−$105$0
Will Netflix Inc (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?No79712.2¢0¢$0−$98$0
Will Ally Financial (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?No79015.2¢0¢$0−$120$0
Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceNorway60035¢0¢$0−$210−$4.09
Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?No60037.2¢0¢$0−$223$0
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Yes60026¢0¢$0−$156−$0.06
Will Carmax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?Yes60020¢0¢$0−$120$0
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?No59918¢0¢$0−$108$0
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?No58718.4¢0¢$0−$108$0
Will Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat quarterly earnings?No58317.5¢0¢$0−$102$0
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?No5689.4¢0¢$0−$53$0
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings?No54826.4¢0¢$0−$145$0
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?No50621¢0¢$0−$106$0
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?Yes5009¢0¢$0−$45−$1.23
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No50050¢0¢$0−$250$0
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?Yes50024¢0¢$0−$120−$2.74
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?Yes50020¢0¢$0−$100−$2.40
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) beat quarterly earnings?No50025¢0¢$0−$125$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?84¢26$2257%52
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?93¢1,000$93057%52
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?78¢3,700$2,88657%52
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?86¢1,957$1,68357%52
BUY YesWill Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?13¢1,000$13057%52
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?88¢5,000$4,40057%52
BUY Felipe LimaUFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)65¢250$16357%52
BUY Dan HookerUFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)20¢1,000$20057%52
BUY NoExtended FDV above $150M one day after launch?56.6¢3,240$1,83357%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?77.8¢1,000$77857%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?77¢1,000$77057%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?64¢183$11757%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?73¢257$18857%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?75¢1,127$84557%52
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?25¢5$1.2557%52
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?18¢5$0.9057%52
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?83¢200$16657%52
BUY NoWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?92¢30$2857%52
SELL NoWill Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?99.8¢13$1357%52
BUY No Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?99.1¢2,393$2,37157%52