Traders/Unranked

JustCrazy

0xc21…0215@SkewDealer

PnL 10k+PoliticsSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$32.1kvol $242M

PnL 30d+$2,090gains $6,508 · losses $4,424

PnL 7d+$1,179win rate 7d 63.2%

Win rate38.8%adj 39.3% · 30d 57.6%

Open value$12.8kcash n/a

Positions145 / 2,309open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age11molast trade 32d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$194kbelow peak −$320kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

36/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale64

Adjusted win rateraw 38.8% · shrunk toward 50%0

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$62.3k Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$58.4k Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$43.2k Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$41.7k Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$32.5k

Worst markets

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$130k Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$6,930 Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$5,072 Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$4,946 Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$4,233

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	816k	0.6¢	0.2¢	$1,224	−$3,612	+$166	25mo
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	712k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$1,069	+$356	+$304	25mo
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	573k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$860	+$285	+$701	25mo
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1.42M	0.2¢	0.1¢	$710	−$2,427	+$261	25mo
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1.12M	0.1¢	0.1¢	$562	−$562	−$661	25mo
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	706k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$353	−$2,436	−$252	25mo
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	644k	0.5¢	0.1¢	$322	−$3,219	−$132	25mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	555k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$277	−$1,138	+$55	25mo
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	510k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$255	−$255	+$34	25mo
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	505k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$252	−$766	+$1,109	6mo
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	500k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$250	−$250	−$20	25mo
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	497k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$248	−$650	+$586	6mo
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	478k	0.6¢	0.1¢	$239	−$2,601	−$202	25mo
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	470k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$235	−$1,459	+$836	6mo
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	416k	0.5¢	0.1¢	$208	−$1,778	+$302	25mo
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	412k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$206	−$580	+$529	6mo
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	403k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$201	−$201	+$38	3mo
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	376k	0.5¢	0.1¢	$188	−$1,702	+$133	25mo
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	121k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$182	+$16	$0	25mo
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	352k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$176	−$179	+$89	6mo
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	343k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$172	−$172	+$17	18d 11h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	332k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$166	−$923	+$297	6mo
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	329k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$164	−$956	+$1,002	6mo
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	324k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$162	−$162	+$5.17	18d 11h
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	323k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$162	−$201	−$4.47	25mo
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	106k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$158	+$53	+$173	3mo
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	314k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$157	−$1,199	+$1,346	6mo
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	309k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$154	−$154	+$561	3mo
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	309k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$154	−$154	+$34	3mo
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	304k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$152	−$189	−$7.14	25mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	298k	0.5¢	0.1¢	$149	−$1,258	−$1,475	25mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	295k	0.5¢	0.1¢	$147	−$1,221	−$869	25mo
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	293k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$146	−$685	+$248	6mo
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	289k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$144	−$144	+$9.86	18d 11h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	288k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$144	−$144	+$1,230	3mo
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	280k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$140	−$140	−$219	25mo
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	280k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$140	−$317	+$1,032	6mo
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	275k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$137	−$137	−$285	25mo
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	82.8k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$124	+$41	+$60	3mo
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	247k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$124	−$134	−$1.42	25mo
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	228k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$114	−$114	+$776	3mo
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	208k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$104	−$443	+$480	6mo
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	176k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$88	−$88	+$16	18d 11h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	56.9k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$85	+$28	+$123	3mo
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	153k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$76	−$76	+$269	3mo
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	150k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$75	−$251	−$90	6mo
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	146k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$73	−$73	+$117	3mo
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	135k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$68	−$232	+$963	6mo
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	133k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$66	−$66	+$111	22d 11h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.7¢	$66	+$26	$0	25mo
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	132k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$66	−$87	+$2.30	25mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	39.8k	0.7¢	0.2¢	$60	−$216	+$312	25mo
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	108k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$54	−$54	+$275	3mo
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	98.0k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$49	−$106	+$170	3mo
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	88.2k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$44	−$44	−$1.77	ended
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	87.0k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$43	−$43	+$251	3mo
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	83.8k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$42	−$42	+$76	22d 11h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	82.8k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$41	−$41	+$31	ended
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	27.6k	0.1¢	0.2¢	$41	+$14	+$24	25mo
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	76.0k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$38	−$60	+$165	25mo
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	75.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$38	−$255	+$116	25mo
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	74.5k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$37	−$37	+$26	3mo
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	74.4k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$37	−$37	+$38	ended
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	73.7k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$37	−$37	+$26	3mo
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	52.8k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$26	−$26	+$476	6mo
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	16.5k	0.4¢	0.2¢	$25	−$40	$0	25mo
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	24.5k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$24	$0	+$49	3mo
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	41.4k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$21	−$21	+$275	6mo
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	39.4k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$20	−$20	+$13	3mo
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	35.9k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$18	−$18	−$299	25mo
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	35.9k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$18	−$18	−$4,031	25mo
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	30.9k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$15	−$28	−$9.67	3mo
Will Chappell Roan be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	9,390	0.1¢	0.2¢	$14	+$4.70	+$3.36	4mo
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	27.6k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$14	−$14	+$47	22d 11h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	26.5k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$13	−$13	+$3.64	3mo
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	22.2k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$11	−$11	+$137	22d 11h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	17.6k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$8.80	−$8.80	+$2.12	3mo
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	16.5k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$8.23	−$57	$0	25mo
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	15.9k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$7.95	−$55	$0	6mo
Will Morgan Wallen be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	5,082	0.1¢	0.2¢	$7.62	+$2.54	+$4.61	4mo
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	14.7k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$7.35	−$7.35	+$28	22d 11h
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	13.9k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$6.93	−$6.93	+$147	22d 11h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	12.6k	0.1¢	0.1¢	$6.29	−$6.11	$0	3mo
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	6,136	0.1¢	0.1¢	$6.14	$0	+$80	3mo
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	3,541	0.1¢	0.2¢	$5.31	+$1.77	+$0.19	4mo
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.2k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$5.11	−$35	$0	25mo
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	7,000	0.4¢	0.1¢	$3.50	−$24	$0	25mo
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2,168	0.1¢	0.2¢	$3.25	+$1.08	+$611	25mo
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	2,052	0.1¢	0.1¢	$2.05	−$0.41	+$36	3mo
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	1,318	0.1¢	0.2¢	$1.98	+$0.66	−$0.27	4mo
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2,555	0.1¢	0.1¢	$1.28	−$1.28	+$244	6mo
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	1,834	0.1¢	0.1¢	$0.92	−$0.92	−$2.12	3mo
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	1,362	0.1¢	0.1¢	$0.68	−$0.68	−$2.00	3mo
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	916	0.1¢	0.1¢	$0.46	−$0.46	+$20	3mo
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	335	0.1¢	0.1¢	$0.17	−$0.17	+$30	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	0.1¢	3,601	$3.60	39%	36
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0.1¢	4,540	$4.54	39%	36
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0.1¢	218	$0.22	39%	36
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0.1¢	107	$0.11	39%	36
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	0.1¢	36	$0.04	39%	36
32d ago	SELL Yes	Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	288	$0.29	39%	36
40d ago	BUY Yes	Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	0.1¢	8,507	$8.51	39%	36
40d ago	SELL Yes	Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	0.1¢	197	$0.20	39%	36
40d ago	SELL Yes	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	0.1¢	197	$0.20	39%	36
41d ago	SELL Otto Virtanen	US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev	12.4¢	22.5k	$2,778	39%	36
41d ago	BUY Otto Virtanen	US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev	18¢	9,058	$1,630	39%	36
1mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-08-22?	33¢	165	$54	39%	36
1mo ago	SELL Yes	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	0.1¢	3,510	$3.51	39%	36
1mo ago	SELL Yes	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	0.1¢	6,025	$6.03	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	36.2k	$36	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	5,313	$5.31	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	22.8k	$23	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	6,166	$6.17	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	41.6k	$42	39%	36
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	35.6k	$36	39%	36