sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,322

EasyGoingA

0xc39…2a1f
WhalePnL 10k+WR 60+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$19.2kvol $976k
PnL 30d−$185gains $29 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$35win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate63.5%adj 62.1% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$15.5kcash n/a
Positions169 / 349open / all-time
Max drawdown−71.5%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$18.3kbelow peak −$36.7kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale61
Adjusted win rateraw 63.5% · shrunk toward 50%55
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity29

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No31.2k39.3¢41.5¢$13.0k+$701$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No10.2k18.7¢12.4¢$1,255−$642+$35
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes2,19125.6¢22.5¢$493−$67−$1.50
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes2,64622.8¢7.5¢$198−$404−$279
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Yes79310.5¢10.5¢$83+$0.02+$3.09
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes40017.1¢15.9¢$63−$5.00$0
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Yes1,1163.2¢5.7¢$63+$27$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2,0001.7¢3.2¢$63+$29$0
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes55819.5¢9.5¢$53−$56−$196
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Yes17030¢25.5¢$43−$7.66$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes24528¢15.2¢$37−$32+$74
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes20020¢15.5¢$31−$9.00$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes51922.3¢5.5¢$29−$87−$205
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,0002.2¢1.3¢$25−$19$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No4040.6¢52¢$21+$4.54$0
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes20015¢9.5¢$19−$11$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No10027¢17.5¢$18−$9.50$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes20016.6¢8.1¢$16−$17$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes4007¢3.3¢$13−$15$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes1054¢93.5¢$9.35+$3.95$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes11012.8¢7.4¢$8.09−$6.00+$24
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1003.8¢5.9¢$5.95+$2.15$0
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes1306¢4.1¢$5.26−$2.54$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes7713¢5.5¢$4.23−$5.77$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes1036¢35.5¢$3.55−$0.05$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1003.3¢2.6¢$2.55−$0.75$0
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes561.9¢2.4¢$1.32+$0.25$0
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes2003.7¢0.3¢$0.60−$6.80$0
Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes1011¢6¢$0.60−$0.50$0
Will Trump visit China by May 15?No55.5k2.5¢0¢$0−$1,370−$34
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?Yes28.0k0.4¢0¢$0−$102$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?No23.5k45.6¢0¢$0−$10.7k+$21
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026?Yes19.8k0.1¢0¢$0−$20$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?Yes16.9k0.1¢0¢$0−$24$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?Yes16.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$17$0
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes14.5k30.8¢0¢$0−$4,458−$407
Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026?Yes14.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$14$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?Yes14.0k0.2¢0¢$0−$24$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026?Yes13.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$13$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?Yes12.0k1.3¢0¢$0−$160$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?Yes11.4k0.1¢0¢$0−$11$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?Yes11.4k0.2¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Yes10.4k49.2¢0¢$0−$5,094−$28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Yes10.1k31.3¢0¢$0−$3,164−$85
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?Yes10.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$10$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?Yes10.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$10$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?Yes10.0k0.3¢0¢$0−$28$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?Yes10,0000.2¢0¢$0−$18$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?Yes10,0000.4¢0¢$0−$39$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?Yes9,90346.5¢0¢$0−$4,607−$794
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?Yes9,0000.4¢0¢$0−$36$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?Yes9,0000.1¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?Yes8,0000.1¢0¢$0−$8.00$0
Will Trump visit China by May 31?No7,1206.4¢0¢$0−$455−$2.56
Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026?Yes7,0000.1¢0¢$0−$7.00$0
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?Yes6,3730.7¢0¢$0−$46$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Yes6,3559¢0¢$0−$571$0
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?Yes6,0000.2¢0¢$0−$11$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No5,50939¢0¢$0−$2,151+$21
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?Yes5,0000.1¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Yes4,99145.3¢0¢$0−$2,262−$9.46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Yes4,31050.2¢0¢$0−$2,164$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes2,87412.1¢0¢$0−$349$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Yes2,83537.1¢0¢$0−$1,052−$150
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Yes2,40028.7¢0¢$0−$689$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Yes2,00828.5¢0¢$0−$573+$15
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?Yes2,0031.5¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?Yes1,9611.9¢0¢$0−$37$0
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes1,81928.1¢0¢$0−$511+$913
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes1,78259.1¢0¢$0−$1,053−$161
Magic vs. PistonsMagic1,35318.4¢0¢$0−$249−$5.15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes1,35046.8¢0¢$0−$632−$1.08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes1,2603.3¢0¢$0−$42+$16
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Yes1,25619.8¢0¢$0−$249$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?Yes1,2530.8¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes1,2004.9¢0¢$0−$59$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?Yes1,19221.6¢0¢$0−$258$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?Yes1,02247.3¢0¢$0−$483$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes99242.6¢0¢$0−$423−$2.97
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Yes99140.1¢0¢$0−$397−$60
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?Yes9611.6¢0¢$0−$15$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes90032¢0¢$0−$288$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?Yes9006.1¢0¢$0−$55$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes89518.3¢0¢$0−$164−$146
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?Yes8161.2¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes80018.4¢0¢$0−$147−$29
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?No8002.9¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?Yes8001.4¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Yes7981.3¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.30
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Yes7352¢0¢$0−$15$0
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?Yes72554.6¢0¢$0−$396−$181
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Yes71434.7¢0¢$0−$248+$117
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes7004.9¢0¢$0−$34−$0.97
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Yes67138.8¢0¢$0−$260−$34
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?No6676¢0¢$0−$40−$1.50
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?Yes6362.4¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?Yes6281.6¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Yes52038.8¢0¢$0−$202$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No51342.5¢0¢$0−$218$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Yes51124¢0¢$0−$122−$58

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢100$4264%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢100$4264%58
BUY YesIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23¢50$1264%58
BUY YesIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23¢100$2364%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢100$4264%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢100$4264%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢100$4264%58
BUY YesIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23¢100$2364%58
BUY YesIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?23¢200$4664%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?40¢200$8064%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?40¢200$8064%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢200$7864%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢210$8264%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢200$7864%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢77$3064%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢128$5064%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?39¢256$10064%58
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?68.7¢198$13664%58
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?38¢200$7664%58
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?74¢172$12764%58