Traders/Unranked

alcaudi

0xc3d…d974

1y+PoliticsOtherCulture

Polymarket

PnL all-time−$1,384vol $222k

PnL 30d+$151gains $0 · losses $0

PnL 7d+$13win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate33.2%adj 34.1% · 30d 0.0%

Open value$1,886cash n/a

Positions71 / 445open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age1.1ylast trade 9mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$1,055below peak −$1,156Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

19/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0

Adjusted win rateraw 33.2% · shrunk toward 50%0

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesopen+$583 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? · Yesclosed+$357 Will ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) beat quarterly earnings? · Noclosed+$317 Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? · Noopen+$236 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Noclosed+$217

Worst markets

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yesopen−$364 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? · Noclosed−$357 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Yesclosed−$296 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed−$265 Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? · Yesclosed−$224

Open positions · 71

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	428	16.9¢	87.1¢	$372	+$300	+$283	ended
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?	No	222	85¢	100¢	$222	+$33	$0	ended
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	180	36.6¢	100¢	$180	+$114	+$6.61	3mo
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	Yes	180	85.7¢	100¢	$180	+$26	+$0.39	ended
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?	Yes	137	70¢	100¢	$137	+$41	+$3.71	ended
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?	No	104	38¢	100¢	$104	+$64	−$5.89	ended
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	100	64¢	100¢	$100	+$36	$0	ended
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	No	98	26.7¢	100¢	$98	+$72	+$164	ended
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	70	43¢	100¢	$70	+$40	+$2.10	ended
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	No	51	30.7¢	100¢	$51	+$35	+$29	ended
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	50	45¢	100¢	$50	+$28	−$0.70	ended
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?	No	44	31¢	100¢	$44	+$30	$0	ended
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	42	43.4¢	100¢	$42	+$24	−$0.80	ended
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?	Yes	35	78¢	100¢	$35	+$7.65	$0	ended
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?	No	33	43¢	100¢	$33	+$19	$0	ended
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	No	28	33¢	88.5¢	$25	+$15	$0	3mo
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	21	84.9¢	100¢	$21	+$3.18	$0	21d 4h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	20	75¢	100¢	$20	+$5.00	$0	ended
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	20	10¢	86.5¢	$17	+$15	$0	3mo
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	15	71¢	100¢	$15	+$4.35	$0	ended
Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	15	81¢	100¢	$15	+$2.77	$0	ended
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	10	53¢	100¢	$10	+$4.70	$0	ended
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?	Yes	10	76.7¢	100¢	$10	+$2.33	−$100	ended
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	9	45¢	100¢	$9.09	+$5.00	−$3.29	ended
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	8	60¢	100¢	$8.00	+$3.20	$0	ended
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	6	71¢	100¢	$6.00	+$1.74	$0	ended
Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?	Yes	5	76¢	100¢	$4.93	+$1.18	−$104	ended
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	No	4	54¢	100¢	$3.63	+$1.67	$0	3mo
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?	Yes	3	87¢	100¢	$3.48	+$0.45	$0	ended
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	10	23¢	5¢	$0.49	−$1.80	+$1.00	3mo
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	2,598	13¢	0¢	$0	−$339	−$25	3mo
Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	400	17¢	0¢	$0	−$68	−$4.78	ended
Will East West Bancorp (EWBC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	400	19.2¢	0¢	$0	−$77	$0	ended
Will General Motors (GM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	300	20.8¢	0¢	$0	−$63	−$5.37	ended
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	No	166	71.9¢	0¢	$0	−$119	$0	3mo
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?	No	150	16.5¢	0¢	$0	−$25	$0	ended
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	136	24¢	0¢	$0	−$33	+$18	ended
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?	Yes	124	3¢	0¢	$0	−$3.71	+$82	ended
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	Yes	100	45¢	0¢	$0	−$45	$0	ended
Will Eric Adams drop out first?	No	100	42¢	0¢	$0	−$42	−$2.00	ended
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	100	40¢	0¢	$0	−$40	$0	ended
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	84	48.8¢	0¢	$0	−$41	+$2.28	ended
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	83	14¢	0¢	$0	−$12	+$141	ended
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?	No	71	13¢	0¢	$0	−$9.22	+$42	ended
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?	No	69	39.7¢	0¢	$0	−$27	−$35	ended
Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	69	28.4¢	0¢	$0	−$20	−$0.21	ended
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	60	10.7¢	0¢	$0	−$6.45	+$23	ended
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	58	23¢	0¢	$0	−$13	+$13	3mo
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?	No	56	37¢	0¢	$0	−$21	$0	ended
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?	No	50	13¢	0¢	$0	−$6.50	$0	ended
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?	No	50	10¢	0¢	$0	−$5.00	$0	ended
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	Yes	49	24¢	0¢	$0	−$12	$0	ended
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	No	45	17¢	0¢	$0	−$7.62	+$58	ended
Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	40	20.2¢	0¢	$0	−$8.08	$0	3mo
Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?	Yes	40	68.5¢	0¢	$0	−$27	$0	ended
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?	Yes	36	46¢	0¢	$0	−$17	−$8.04	ended
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	21	63¢	0¢	$0	−$13	$0	ended
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	20	52¢	0¢	$0	−$10	$0	21d 4h
Will Trump say "Russia" or "China" 4+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?	No	20	22¢	0¢	$0	−$4.40	$0	ended
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	20	23.7¢	0¢	$0	−$4.65	−$3.42	ended
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?	Yes	19	46¢	0¢	$0	−$8.71	−$5.28	ended
Will Arm Holdings (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	19	11¢	0¢	$0	−$2.07	−$6.00	ended
Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	18	10¢	0¢	$0	−$1.81	$0	ended
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	17	20.7¢	0¢	$0	−$3.59	−$2.52	ended
Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by November 30?	Yes	15	30¢	0¢	$0	−$4.50	$0	ended
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	No	13	57¢	0¢	$0	−$7.18	−$1.47	ended
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?	No	7	15¢	0¢	$0	−$1.06	+$10	ended
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?	Yes	7	18¢	0¢	$0	−$1.20	−$4.69	ended
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	6	33¢	0¢	$0	−$1.96	$0	ended
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	Yes	5	45¢	0¢	$0	−$2.47	$0	ended
Will AppLovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?	No	2	16¢	0¢	$0	−$0.32	$0	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Named storm forms before hurricane season?	45¢	100	$45	33%	19
9mo ago	SELL Yes	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	71¢	61	$43	33%	19
9mo ago	SELL Yes	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	42¢	100	$42	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY No	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?	85¢	91	$78	33%	19
9mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?	77¢	5	$3.85	33%	19
9mo ago	SELL No	Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?	37.7¢	192	$72	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	12.4¢	100	$12	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	68	$8.97	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	100	$13	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	100	$13	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13¢	100	$13	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13¢	100	$13	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13¢	50	$6.50	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	32	$4.19	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	83	$11	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13.1¢	30	$3.93	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	12.9¢	50	$6.45	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	12.9¢	30	$3.87	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13¢	40	$5.20	33%	19
9mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	13¢	100	$13	33%	19