sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,593

Skinny-Diving

0xc3d…0f98
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$103kvol $3.40M
PnL 30d−$25.9kgains $7,447 · losses $94.8k
PnL 7d−$4,847win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate41.0%adj 41.5% · 30d 12.8%
Open value$74.9kcash n/a
Positions35 / 437open / all-time
Max drawdown−47.8%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$86.0kbelow peak −$78.7kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

56/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale72
Adjusted win rateraw 41.0% · shrunk toward 50%4
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity52

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? · Yesclosed+$18.0kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$16.3kWill Iran strike Israel on March 10? · Yesclosed+$14.0kWill the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? · Yesclosed+$12.1kWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$10.2k

Worst markets

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Noclosed−$11.9kIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Noclosed−$7,244Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Noopen−$7,195Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Noclosed−$6,644US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Noclosed−$5,940

Open positions · 35

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No21.8k86.9¢86.5¢$18.8k−$80$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No16.1k66.3¢93.5¢$15.1k+$4,388$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No30.6k41.7¢22.5¢$6,894−$5,892$0
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No7,20974.6¢72.5¢$5,227−$151$0
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No5,55580¢91.5¢$5,083+$639$0
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No4,35696¢97.9¢$4,262+$81$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No9,76034.9¢42.5¢$4,148+$743+$343
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No4,77445¢58.5¢$2,793+$646$0
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No2,39570.7¢94.4¢$2,260+$566$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No9,00726.3¢17.5¢$1,576−$797+$133
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes11.1k20¢11.5¢$1,278−$944$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No16.0k6¢7.5¢$1,200+$240$0
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes3,33340¢35.5¢$1,183−$150$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes6,86021.7¢15.5¢$1,063−$427+$9.12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?No85337¢88.5¢$755+$439+$1,497
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes5,62216¢9.5¢$534−$365−$169
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?No49081.9¢99.1¢$485+$84$0
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes2,93519.5¢15.6¢$458−$116$0
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?No33398¢99.6¢$332+$5.33$0
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes4,22333.4¢6.3¢$266−$1,143$0
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes2,22242¢11¢$244−$689$0
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes5,5554.9¢3.8¢$208−$64$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?Yes11.3k6¢1.7¢$186−$491$0
Will Together win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No21884¢75.5¢$165−$19$0
Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?No8195¢100¢$81+$4.01$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes94220¢8¢$75−$113$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?No3,9091.5¢1.5¢$59+$0.30$0
Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?No5885.7¢93.5¢$54+$4.54$0
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes5789¢92.9¢$53+$2.24$0
Will Together win 20 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes901.1¢16.5¢$15+$14$0
Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?Yes1588.4¢9.4¢$15+$1.55$0
Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes411.9¢11.4¢$4.67+$3.90$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes222¢7.5¢$0.14−$0.27$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No62.6k11.5¢0¢$0−$7,177−$18
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Yes52251¢0¢$0−$266+$181

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?6¢16.0k$96041%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?1.5¢3,909$5841%56
BUY YesIsrael military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?8.4¢158$1341%56
BUY NoWill Together win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?84¢218$18341%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?45¢4,774$2,14741%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?36¢2,565$92441%56
BUY YesUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?93¢2,428$2,25841%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?52.3¢4,444$2,32541%56
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?22¢517$11441%56
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?23¢2,983$68741%56
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?15.4¢4,444$68441%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?53¢9,822$5,20641%56
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?19¢3,500$66541%56
BUY NoHouthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?98¢333$32641%56
BUY NoHouthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?81.9¢490$40141%56
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?80.3¢1,377$1,10641%56
BUY NoWill Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?95.4¢2,909$2,77541%56
BUY YesWill Together win 20 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?1.1¢60$0.6641%56
BUY YesWill Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?1.9¢41$0.7841%56
BUY YesWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?20.2¢484$9841%56