sharpside
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PadreMaronno

0xc46…009d@PolyMaronno
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$13.5kvol $544k
PnL 30d+$167gains $227 · losses $20
PnL 7d+$16win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate74.5%adj 73.5% · 30d 81.5%
Open value$3,650cash n/a
Positions173 / 4,473open / all-time
Max drawdown−5.1%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$14.4kbelow peak −$27Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

81/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 74.5% · shrunk toward 50%84
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity95

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Iran Nuke before 2027?No40079¢96.8¢$387+$71$0
Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No24091.7¢98.2¢$236+$16$0
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?No14785¢96.6¢$142+$17$0
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?No12878.1¢98.2¢$125+$26$0
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?No12582.8¢96.7¢$120+$17$0
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?No10076.4¢99.3¢$99+$23+$22
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No10079.4¢99.1¢$99+$20+$18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes12058.3¢82.5¢$99+$29$0
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?No10073¢98.6¢$99+$26+$18
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?No10068.1¢98.5¢$98+$30+$45
Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?Yes10082¢97.8¢$98+$16$0
Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No10092¢97.4¢$97+$5.40$0
Will Simon peak at Category 4?Yes10071¢96.9¢$97+$26$0
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No10093.9¢96.4¢$96+$2.50$0
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No10076¢95.5¢$96+$20$0
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?No9847.4¢96.6¢$95+$48$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No10085¢94¢$94+$9.00$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No9033¢90¢$81+$51−$6.00
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes9055¢82.5¢$74+$25$0
Will Kuwait join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No10089¢70¢$70−$19$0
Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No7093¢98.2¢$69+$3.64$0
Will Morocco join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No7094¢97.1¢$68+$2.17$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No7076¢95.5¢$67+$14$0
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?No6055¢97.3¢$58+$25$0
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?No7067¢82¢$57+$11$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No7073¢80.5¢$56+$5.25+$4.44
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No6048¢93.5¢$56+$27$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No6054¢87.5¢$53+$20$0
Madison Beer and Justin Herbert confirmed married by December 31?No6752.3¢76.5¢$51+$16−$0.09
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?No20011¢24.5¢$49+$27$0
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?No6069.8¢81.5¢$49+$7.00$0
Christie's vs Sotheby's: higher 2026 sales total?Sotheby's6244.3¢78.5¢$48+$21$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No5061¢95.9¢$48+$17+$44
Will Nolo peak at Category 5?No4096.1¢98.4¢$39+$0.92$0
Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No4253¢92¢$39+$16$0
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No4062¢93¢$37+$12$0
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No3091¢96.3¢$29+$1.59$0
Will Jordan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No3093¢93.9¢$28+$0.26$0
Will Trump say "BMW" in October?No5036¢55¢$27+$9.50$0
Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No3091¢90.5¢$27−$0.15$0
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?No2176.5¢95.1¢$20+$3.84+$11
Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No2089¢98.9¢$19+$1.94$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes11518.6¢16.5¢$19−$2.37$0
Canada's population Up or Down this year?Down3317¢54.5¢$18+$13+$12
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?No2051¢91¢$18+$8.00$0
Plague pandemic in 2026?No1889¢98¢$17+$1.58$0
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?No2159¢70.5¢$15+$2.42$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No1553¢97.7¢$15+$6.70$0
Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaNothing1587¢93.7¢$14+$1.02$0
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?No1271¢96.4¢$12+$3.15$0
Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No1292¢98¢$12+$0.71$0
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?No1183¢96.5¢$11+$1.50+$0.17
Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?No1094.1¢100¢$9.99+$0.58$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No1051¢99.2¢$9.91+$4.82$0
Negative GDP growth in 2026?No841¢98¢$8.30+$4.83$0
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?No961¢86.5¢$7.79+$2.29$0
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?No851¢93¢$7.50+$3.39$0
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?No1054¢73.5¢$7.34+$1.95$0
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?No793.6¢97.1¢$6.51+$0.23$0
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Yes12019.3¢5¢$6.00−$17$0
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Yes2015¢28¢$5.68+$2.64$0
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Down3721.7¢10.5¢$3.92−$4.18+$0.20
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Yes9034.3¢4.1¢$3.64−$27$0
Russia coup attempt in 2026?No371¢96.6¢$3.33+$0.88$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes3925.6¢8.5¢$3.32−$6.69+$1.15
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Yes4003.9¢0.8¢$3.20−$12$0
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?No257¢96.3¢$2.24+$0.91$0
All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?No351¢68¢$2.04+$0.51$0
Japan recession in 2026?No253¢95.5¢$2.03+$0.90$0
Will Denis Bouanga win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?No281¢99.8¢$1.93+$0.36$0
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Yes3515.9¢5.5¢$1.91−$3.61$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?Yes1102.6¢1.2¢$1.26−$1.56$0
Will more than 650,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No190¢98.7¢$0.99+$0.09$0
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Yes2044.4¢4.2¢$0.84−$8.04$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?No6546.1¢0.8¢$0.49−$29$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?No658¢5.9¢$0.34−$3.03+$17
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes4910¢0.5¢$0.27−$4.67$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?No721¢4¢$0.27−$1.15$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?Yes1003.2¢0.1¢$0.10−$3.10$0
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0000.8¢0¢$0−$8.00$0
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal?Yes9765.3¢0¢$0−$52−$1.38
Will Trump's remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company not air?Yes7000.3¢0¢$0−$2.10$0
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes5001.3¢0¢$0−$6.50$0
Will Trump say "Truck" or "Trucker" 20+ times during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?No4405.9¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes32562.8¢0¢$0−$204−$3.00
Will Juventus place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes3214.2¢0¢$0−$14$0
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia?Yes3009.5¢0¢$0−$29+$22
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes29423.8¢0¢$0−$70+$6.86
Will Trump say "Match" or "Game" during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?No2005¢0¢$0−$10$0
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2003.2¢0¢$0−$6.40$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes2009¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2001.8¢0¢$0−$3.60$0
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2001.6¢0¢$0−$3.20$0
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?Yes18011¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026?No14027.3¢0¢$0−$38−$0.24
Will Trump say "Fossil" or "Fuel" during coal announcement?No13562.1¢0¢$0−$84−$0.34
Will Como place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes1285.6¢0¢$0−$7.21$0
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?No10250.3¢0¢$0−$52+$27
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Wisconsin events?No10015¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?Yes1002.1¢0¢$0−$2.10$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?26¢3$0.7075%81Sharp
BUY YesWill Simon peak at Category 4?71¢30$2175%81Sharp
BUY YesWill Simon peak at Category 4?71¢70$5075%81Sharp
SELL NoWill Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 31?69¢60$4175%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?79¢102$8175%81Sharp
BUY YesWill Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon?98.3¢149$14775%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon?24¢80$1975%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026?18¢40$7.2275%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ford" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?52¢20$1075%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ice Cream" in October?26¢30$7.8075%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "Amazon" in September?96¢31$3075%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "Central Casting" in October?15¢61$9.1575%81Sharp
BUY SothebysChristie's vs Sotheby's: higher 2026 sales total?44.3¢62$2775%81Sharp
BUY NoWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?54¢10$5.3975%81Sharp
BUY NoTrump insults Anthropic CEO this week?79¢21$1775%81Sharp
SELL NoWill Trump say "NVIDIA" in September?60¢10$6.0075%81Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "NVIDIA" in September?70¢80$5675%81Sharp
SELL NoSurigae makes landfall in Japan?76¢121$9275%81Sharp
BUY NoSurigae makes landfall in Japan?27¢121$3375%81Sharp
BUY NoWill the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?59¢21$1275%81Sharp