sharpside
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0xc48…8d0d
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,492vol $65.4k
PnL 30d+$210gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$11win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate46.7%adj 48.6% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$15.5kcash n/a
Positions20 / 35open / all-time
Max drawdown−91.1%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 7mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$1,171below peak −$707Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

11/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 46.7% · shrunk toward 50%22
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable51
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity9

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Noopen+$1,096Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noopen+$426U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? · Noopen+$373Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noopen+$284Will Trump and Putin not meet? · Yesopen+$248

Worst markets

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Noopen−$1,426US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? · Noopen−$620Will Trump ban institutional investor single-family home purchases? · Noopen−$571Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? · Noopen−$571Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Noopen−$381

Open positions · 20

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No5,54880.2¢100¢$5,548+$1,096$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No1,45865.3¢94.5¢$1,378+$426$0
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No1,32571.8¢100¢$1,325+$373$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No1,23677¢100¢$1,236+$284$0
US forces enter Iran by March 31?No1,11485.4¢100¢$1,114+$162$0
US strike on Colombia by March 31?No1,09087.3¢100¢$1,090+$138$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No1,50263.4¢58.5¢$879−$73$0
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes81969.7¢100¢$819+$248$0
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No71979.4¢100¢$719+$148$0
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?No72878.4¢96.4¢$702+$131$0
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?No52469¢100¢$524+$162$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes69452¢26.5¢$184−$177$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No16.0k8.9¢0¢$0−$1,426$0
Will the Doomsday Clock move by ten seconds or more?Yes1,05934.1¢0¢$0−$361$0
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes1,0329.7¢0¢$0−$100$0
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? No86571.7¢0¢$0−$620$0
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?No80071.4¢0¢$0−$571$0
Will Trump ban institutional investor single-family home purchases?No79971.4¢0¢$0−$571$0
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?No62158.1¢0¢$0−$361$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No55269¢0¢$0−$381$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?9.4¢10.6k$99947%11
BUY NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?8.9¢1,719$15347%11
BUY NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?7.4¢3,502$26147%11
BUY NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?7.4¢176$1347%11
BUY NoUS x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? 65¢25$1647%11
SELL NoU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?63.1¢601$37947%11
BUY NoUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?85¢106$9047%11
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?80.1¢1,872$1,50047%11
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?78¢2,564$2,00047%11
SELL NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?50.6¢1,870$94647%11
SELL NoUkraine election held by December 31, 2026?62.7¢527$33047%11
SELL NoTrump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?77.7¢508$39547%11
SELL NoEpstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?59.4¢957$56847%11
SELL NoWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?62.1¢794$49347%11
SELL YesWill Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?99.9¢438$43747%11
BUY YesWill Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?82.5¢438$36147%11
BUY NoU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?60.1¢601$36147%11
BUY YesWill Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?9.7¢1,032$10047%11
BUY YesWill the Doomsday Clock move by ten seconds or more?34.1¢1,059$36147%11
BUY NoTrump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?71.1¢508$36147%11