sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,171

Bperil

0xc62…ee24@BP3_PM
SharpPnL 10k+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$25.6kvol $2.03M
PnL 30d+$4,186gains $3,529 · losses $1,482
PnL 7d+$986win rate 7d 52.6%
Win rate59.1%adj 58.7% · 30d 51.2%
Open value$19.2kcash n/a
Positions82 / 1,817open / all-time
Max drawdown−10.1%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 7m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$30.8kbelow peak −$113Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

71/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 59.1% · shrunk toward 50%47
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 82

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes3,32057.2¢61.5¢$2,042+$142$0
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes5,15332.5¢38.5¢$1,984+$311$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No3,07257¢61.5¢$1,889+$139$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No4,53733.2¢38.5¢$1,747+$242$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes1,23345.5¢68.5¢$845+$283+$14
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No1,09054.2¢67.5¢$736+$144+$6.71
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes2,57531.1¢28.5¢$734−$66−$46
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?No79157.1¢82¢$649+$197$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No2,06929¢28.5¢$590−$10−$80
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes22.7k1.2¢2.5¢$555+$287+$0.27
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,16043.1¢42.1¢$488−$12+$257
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes72761.9¢63.5¢$462+$12−$2.01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes53983.5¢85.7¢$462+$12+$33
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes40393¢90.5¢$365−$10+$2.41
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Yes42580¢81.5¢$346+$6.38+$137
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Yes37280.6¢86.5¢$322+$22$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No61548.8¢51.5¢$316+$16−$50
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes66745¢44.5¢$297−$3.33−$82
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5,5665.3¢5.1¢$281−$14−$35
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes42459¢57.5¢$244−$6.36−$59
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes27872¢73.5¢$204+$4.17+$59
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes62632¢28.5¢$178−$22$0
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No17981.4¢96.8¢$173+$28+$14
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No17484.6¢98¢$171+$23+$3.00
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No17772¢91.5¢$162+$34+$353
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No16188.4¢97¢$156+$14+$13
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No14295¢96.3¢$137+$1.78+$1.20
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?No12287.7¢97.4¢$119+$12+$8.69
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No11289¢97.5¢$109+$9.49$0
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No11488¢95.5¢$109+$8.52$0
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?No12290¢87.5¢$107−$3.06$0
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No11885¢89.5¢$105+$5.30+$235
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes10689.7¢96.8¢$102+$7.42$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No10595¢97.2¢$102+$2.26−$8.33
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?Yes10496¢95.5¢$99−$0.52$0
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes27037¢36.5¢$99−$1.35$0
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No10087.7¢97.8¢$98+$10+$1.83
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?No25639¢37.5¢$96−$3.85$0
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland Mayor election?Yes9890.4¢92¢$90+$1.53$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes10089¢87.5¢$88−$1.50$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?Yes13065.4¢65.5¢$85+$0.07$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No10174¢77.5¢$79+$3.55−$1.35
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?No7790.6¢98.9¢$76+$6.41$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No6395.9¢96.5¢$60+$0.38$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes38716¢15.5¢$60−$1.94−$122
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?No6182¢92.5¢$56+$6.40$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?Yes9573.5¢58.5¢$56−$14+$58
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Yes6083¢90.5¢$55+$4.52$0
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?No16730¢30.5¢$51+$0.83$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?Yes5395¢95.2¢$50+$0.11$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?No12839¢38.5¢$49−$0.64$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?Yes5394¢90.5¢$48−$1.86$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Yes12540¢38.5¢$48−$1.88$0
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes4491¢93.7¢$41+$1.16$0
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Yes4585¢88.5¢$40+$1.58$0
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?No3880¢96.7¢$36+$6.26$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?Yes12029¢29.5¢$35+$0.60$0
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?No4087¢84¢$34−$1.21$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,2002.5¢2.7¢$32+$1.80−$9.44
Blue wave in 2026?Yes3585¢84.5¢$30−$0.18$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3976.3¢7.5¢$30+$4.56−$5.32
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No3196.4¢94.1¢$29−$0.73$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?Yes10923¢26.5¢$29+$3.80$0
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2794.9¢98.4¢$26+$0.93$0
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No2697.9¢98.4¢$25+$0.11$0
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,0031.5¢1.3¢$25−$4.96$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-25 House seat?No2387¢96.1¢$22+$2.09$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-25 House seat?Yes2388¢96.3¢$22+$1.89$0
Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027?No2041.5¢97.7¢$20+$11$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No1875¢89¢$16+$2.48$0
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No1696¢95.4¢$15−$0.10$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4172.4¢2.8¢$11+$1.46$0
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?No1285¢96.3¢$11+$1.33$0
Blue tsunami in 2026?Yes1954¢48¢$8.89−$1.11$0
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes578.7¢9.8¢$5.60+$0.60+$3.30
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No580¢93.5¢$5.04+$0.73$0
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,6670.3¢0.3¢$4.17−$0.83$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes3414.8¢11¢$3.70−$1.30$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Yes1025¢16¢$1.60−$0.90+$14
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Yes1,17041.4¢0¢$0−$484−$256
Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?Yes4555¢0¢$0−$25−$0.45
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 17?Yes2711¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.13

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?37¢676$25059%71Sharp
SELL YesWill the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?72.9¢23$1759%71Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?62¢968$60059%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?63¢794$50059%71Sharp
SELL NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?63¢3,412$2,14959%71Sharp
SELL YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?64¢6,568$4,20359%71Sharp
SELL NoWill The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?49¢193$9459%71Sharp
SELL YesMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?9¢167$1559%71Sharp
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?7.5¢167$1359%71Sharp
SELL YesWill Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?52.2¢57$3059%71Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?68¢441$30059%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.7¢236$20059%71Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?36¢639$23059%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?37¢1,378$51059%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?36¢105$3859%71Sharp
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?33¢79$2659%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.5¢337$8.4459%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?81¢6$4.8659%71Sharp
SELL YesWill the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?26.6¢213$5759%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?67¢90$6059%71Sharp