sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,197

badkidsart

0xc6c…1b0d
1y+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$591vol $121k
PnL 30d+$473gains $77 · losses $348
PnL 7d+$215win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate60.0%adj 58.8% · 30d 33.3%
Open value$11.1kcash n/a
Positions67 / 212open / all-time
Max drawdown−95.9%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 10d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$768below peak −$1,547Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale40
Adjusted win rateraw 60.0% · shrunk toward 50%47
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d65
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity4

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 67

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No82285.1¢96.9¢$796+$96$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No83196.2¢95¢$790−$10$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No2,0709.7¢28.5¢$590+$390$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No55690¢96.2¢$534+$34$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No51796.8¢98.7¢$510+$9.72$0
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No42694¢98.2¢$418+$18$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No42694¢97.3¢$414+$14$0
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No34387.5¢96.9¢$332+$32$0
Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2026?No31395.8¢97.6¢$306+$5.62$0
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No3140¢97.1¢$305+$305$0
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?No31794.8¢95.3¢$302+$1.67$0
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?No31595.1¢95.4¢$301+$0.66$0
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?No22588.8¢98.1¢$221+$21$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No23087¢95.4¢$219+$19$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No22389.6¢97.7¢$218+$18$0
Canva IPO before 2027?No21991.5¢97.1¢$212+$12$0
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?No21792¢97.4¢$212+$12$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No22589¢93.8¢$211+$11$0
Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2027?Yes22589¢84.5¢$190−$10$0
Databricks IPO before 2027?No17983.8¢97.2¢$174+$24$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes34329.2¢41.9¢$143+$43$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes14768¢95.5¢$140+$40$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes25738.9¢48.4¢$125+$25$0
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?No12695.3¢96.5¢$121+$1.48$0
Deel IPO before 2027?No11884.9¢99.6¢$117+$17$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes75526.5¢15.5¢$117−$83$0
Stripe IPO before 2027?No11685.9¢97¢$113+$13$0
Discord IPO before 2027?No12083.2¢93.2¢$112+$12$0
ByteDance IPO before 2027?No11190¢97.9¢$109+$8.78$0
Ramp IPO before 2027?No11190¢97.8¢$109+$8.61$0
Vanta IPO before 2027?No10991.4¢99¢$108+$8.27$0
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?No11487.8¢94.7¢$108+$7.80$0
Ledger IPO before 2027?No11090.8¢97.8¢$108+$7.66$0
WHOOP IPO before 2027?No10892.6¢98.9¢$107+$6.80$0
Rippling IPO before 2027?No11190.3¢96.3¢$107+$6.66$0
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?No10694¢98.4¢$105+$4.63$0
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?No11090.8¢95¢$105+$4.60$0
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?No10694¢97.9¢$104+$4.10$0
Human moon landing in 2026?No10396.9¢98.9¢$102+$2.01$0
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?No10595¢96.9¢$102+$1.95$0
Is Earth flat?No10297.6¢99.4¢$102+$1.84$0
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?No10793.1¢94.8¢$102+$1.83$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes10694¢95.5¢$102+$1.60$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No10892.7¢93.9¢$101+$1.29$0
Waymo IPO before 2027?No10397¢98.3¢$101+$1.29$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No10595¢95.5¢$101+$0.58$0
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?No10694¢93.8¢$100−$0.21$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Yes10694¢93.5¢$99−$0.53$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No30565.6¢31.5¢$96−$104$0
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?No10496.3¢92.4¢$96−$4.11$0
Revolut IPO before 2027?No8989.5¢96.3¢$86+$6.05$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes34529¢22.3¢$77−$23$0
Remote IPO before 2027?No6182¢96.6¢$59+$8.90$0
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3,4082.9¢1.7¢$56−$44$0
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?No5493¢98.6¢$53+$2.98$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes11488¢46¢$52−$48$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50020¢9¢$45−$55$0
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Yes38513¢8.5¢$33−$17$0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Yes37426.7¢8.5¢$32−$68$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes28834.8¢11¢$32−$68$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?No70128.5¢4¢$28−$172$0
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Yes18155.3¢14¢$25−$75$0
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,1454.4¢1.7¢$19−$31$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?Yes25040¢7.5¢$19−$81$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes20848¢5.5¢$11−$89$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?Yes2775.2¢8¢$2.13−$18$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes2039.8¢0¢$0−$20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?96¢521$50060%44
BUY NoWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?94¢106$10060%44
BUY NoWill Snapchat be acquired before 2027?87.8¢114$10060%44
BUY YesWill Trump visit Greenland by December 31?13¢385$5060%44
BUY NoU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?95¢105$10060%44
BUY NoUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?93.1¢107$10060%44
BUY NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?92.7¢108$10060%44
SELL YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?14.6¢303$4460%44
SELL YesWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?3.9¢0$0.0160%44
SELL YesWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?3.9¢927$3660%44
SELL YesHantavirus vaccine in 2026? 3¢833$2560%44
BUY YesWill Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?40¢250$10060%44
BUY YesWill Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?94¢106$10060%44
SELL NoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?16.3¢125$2060%44
BUY NoDiscord IPO before 2027?83.2¢120$10060%44
SELL YesDiscord IPO before 2027?16.8¢106$1860%44
SELL YesApplied Intuition IPO before 2027?0.8¢481$3.6760%44
BUY NoWill Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?95¢105$10060%44
SELL YesWill Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?5¢68$3.4260%44
BUY NoKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?96.7¢310$30060%44