| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | No | 4,876 | 87¢ | 92.5¢ | $4,510 | +$268 | $0 | |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | No | 4,423 | 70.5¢ | 85.9¢ | $3,800 | +$680 | −$72 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 3,739 | 90.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $3,571 | +$183 | −$40 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 3,000 | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | $2,999 | +$77 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,647 | 36.1¢ | 75.5¢ | $2,753 | +$1,437 | +$24 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 2,455 | 90.7¢ | 98¢ | $2,406 | +$179 | −$12 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,300 | 94.6¢ | 97.2¢ | $2,234 | +$59 | −$2.42 | |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | No | 2,483 | 71.7¢ | 88.5¢ | $2,197 | +$418 | +$30 | |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | No | 3,143 | 68¢ | 69.5¢ | $2,185 | +$47 | −$36 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,274 | 55¢ | 95.9¢ | $2,179 | +$929 | +$215 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | Yes | 2,078 | 96.2¢ | 98.8¢ | $2,052 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | Yes | 2,011 | 89.5¢ | 91.4¢ | $1,837 | +$37 | +$370 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,950 | 84¢ | 88.5¢ | $1,726 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | No | 1,853 | 80¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,677 | +$195 | +$11 | |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | No | 1,635 | 94.6¢ | 96¢ | $1,569 | +$23 | −$531 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | No | 2,069 | 75.2¢ | 73.7¢ | $1,524 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,572 | 81.3¢ | 96.6¢ | $1,518 | +$240 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 1,943 | 26.4¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,506 | +$993 | +$161 | |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | No | 1,491 | 93.6¢ | 98.3¢ | $1,465 | +$69 | −$47 | |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 1,405 | 86.2¢ | 96.6¢ | $1,357 | +$147 | −$503 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,773 | 46.8¢ | 48.5¢ | $1,345 | +$49 | −$2,836 | |
| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? | Yes | 3,847 | 15.5¢ | 33.3¢ | $1,281 | +$686 | +$5.27 | |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? | No | 1,307 | 90.2¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,273 | +$94 | +$1.21 | |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | No change | 1,480 | 65¢ | 85¢ | $1,258 | +$296 | $0 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 1,310 | 30¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,251 | +$858 | +$122 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 1,291 | 96.6¢ | 96.8¢ | $1,250 | +$2.58 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,277 | 95.8¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,244 | +$20 | −$9.29 | |
| Will Jared Goff win the 2026 NFL MVP? | No | 1,236 | 93¢ | 98.3¢ | $1,215 | +$65 | +$4.61 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? | No | 1,209 | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | $1,208 | +$416 | +$6.24 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,174 | 97.6¢ | 99¢ | $1,161 | +$16 | −$923 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 1,557 | 74¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,144 | −$7.79 | −$19 | |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,419 | 77¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,142 | +$50 | +$18 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 1,174 | 93.4¢ | 95.7¢ | $1,123 | +$26 | −$241 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,328 | 50.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,123 | +$453 | +$25 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | No | 1,193 | 91¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,103 | +$17 | −$43 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 1,344 | 20¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,096 | +$826 | +$181 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 1,159 | 50.8¢ | 92¢ | $1,066 | +$478 | +$150 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,242 | 49.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,062 | +$451 | −$7.69 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,469 | 49¢ | 42.5¢ | $1,049 | −$161 | −$31 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,317 | 24¢ | 79.5¢ | $1,047 | +$731 | +$505 | |
| Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 1,100 | 94.8¢ | 95.1¢ | $1,046 | +$2.75 | −$586 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,043 | 96.5¢ | 98.6¢ | $1,029 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 1,075 | 76.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,027 | +$206 | +$28 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,024 | 97.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $995 | −$1.17 | −$7.80 | |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 1,034 | 94.4¢ | 95.4¢ | $986 | +$9.68 | +$0.56 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,065 | 31.8¢ | 92.5¢ | $985 | +$646 | +$48 | |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 1,267 | 80¢ | 76¢ | $963 | −$51 | −$8.59 | |
| Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | No | 1,018 | 95.3¢ | 92.8¢ | $944 | −$26 | −$14 | |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 3,147 | 27.7¢ | 29.6¢ | $932 | +$60 | +$205 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat? | No | 965 | 90.6¢ | 95.7¢ | $924 | +$49 | +$0.40 | |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | No | 1,035 | 35¢ | 88¢ | $911 | +$549 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,421 | 51.5¢ | 64¢ | $909 | +$177 | −$0.03 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | No | 943 | 95.6¢ | 96.1¢ | $906 | +$4.49 | −$0.22 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 1,034 | 77¢ | 87.5¢ | $905 | +$109 | $0 | |
| Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | No | 942 | 93.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $900 | +$22 | −$27 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 960 | 93.2¢ | 93.6¢ | $898 | +$3.03 | −$625 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | No | 997 | 46.4¢ | 90¢ | $898 | +$435 | +$22 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,310 | 72¢ | 68.5¢ | $897 | −$45 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | Yes | 896 | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | $896 | +$43 | −$469 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | No | 930 | 91.5¢ | 95.4¢ | $888 | +$36 | +$5.17 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 1,038 | 39.3¢ | 85.5¢ | $887 | +$479 | +$90 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1,035 | 25.9¢ | 85.7¢ | $886 | +$618 | +$175 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 3,279 | 13¢ | 27¢ | $885 | +$459 | +$89 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat? | No | 868 | 91.8¢ | 97.4¢ | $846 | +$48 | −$458 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 862 | 88.4¢ | 97.4¢ | $840 | +$77 | −$44 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 982 | 44.2¢ | 84.5¢ | $830 | +$395 | +$195 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 1,241 | 65.5¢ | 66.6¢ | $826 | +$13 | −$119 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | No | 845 | 97¢ | 97.7¢ | $825 | +$5.49 | −$139 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | No | 839 | 40.9¢ | 97.5¢ | $818 | +$474 | +$198 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 993 | 81¢ | 80.6¢ | $800 | −$4.47 | −$55 | |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Yes | 1,138 | 41.7¢ | 69.5¢ | $791 | +$317 | −$65 | |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | No | 1,082 | 51¢ | 73¢ | $790 | +$238 | $0 | |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | No | 832 | 92.8¢ | 92.5¢ | $770 | −$3.29 | −$1.16 | |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | No | 1,075 | 68¢ | 71.5¢ | $769 | +$38 | −$125 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat? | Yes | 801 | 90.2¢ | 95.9¢ | $768 | +$45 | +$2.55 | |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,080 | 66¢ | 70¢ | $756 | +$43 | −$39 | |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? | No | 765 | 95.5¢ | 98.2¢ | $751 | +$20 | −$7.92 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,717 | 66.5¢ | 43.5¢ | $747 | −$395 | $0 | |
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 1,640 | 4.6¢ | 45.5¢ | $746 | +$671 | +$9.59 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,279 | 61.1¢ | 58.3¢ | $745 | −$35 | −$27 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | No | 1,732 | 41¢ | 40.5¢ | $701 | −$9.37 | +$6.96 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,606 | 52.3¢ | 43.5¢ | $698 | −$141 | −$18 | |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic | 738 | 70.1¢ | 91.5¢ | $675 | +$158 | +$26 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 699 | 76.2¢ | 94.5¢ | $661 | +$128 | −$36 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 891 | 50.3¢ | 74¢ | $659 | +$211 | +$18 | |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 872 | 42¢ | 74.5¢ | $650 | +$283 | +$34 | |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 686 | 76.1¢ | 94¢ | $645 | +$123 | +$44 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9? | Yes | 815 | 50.8¢ | 79¢ | $644 | +$230 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | No | 770 | 84.4¢ | 81.8¢ | $629 | −$20 | −$8.39 | |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 685 | 86¢ | 91.5¢ | $627 | +$38 | −$12 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8? | Yes | 1,178 | 17.9¢ | 53¢ | $624 | +$413 | $0 | |
| Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? | No | 658 | 45.2¢ | 94.7¢ | $622 | +$325 | +$154 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 1,799 | 24.1¢ | 34.5¢ | $621 | +$186 | +$12 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 644 | 94.7¢ | 95.8¢ | $617 | +$6.96 | −$465 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29? | Yes | 727 | 76.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $614 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 617 | 97.5¢ | 99.2¢ | $612 | +$10 | −$6.76 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2,154 | 27.7¢ | 28.1¢ | $605 | +$7.81 | +$115 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 742 | 74.9¢ | 81.5¢ | $605 | +$49 | −$8.87 | |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? | No | 620 | 95.6¢ | 95.7¢ | $593 | +$0.31 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 711 | 41.4¢ | 80.5¢ | $572 | +$278 | +$124 | |