sharpside
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Traders/Rank #291

betwick

0xc85…cd2a@Betwick1
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsCultureOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$660kvol $39.4M
PnL 30d−$21.6kgains $121k · losses $45.2k
PnL 7d+$1,980win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate56.8%adj 56.6% · 30d 61.5%
Open value$51.3kcash n/a
Positions42 / 691open / all-time
Max drawdown−36.1%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$627kbelow peak −$201kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale83
Adjusted win rateraw 56.8% · shrunk toward 50%42
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d94
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity64

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 42

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes20.0k61¢56.5¢$11.3k−$900+$1,427
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No21.4k32.2¢51.3¢$11.0k+$4,093+$2,747
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes75.0k8¢10¢$7,501+$1,500+$5,439
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Yes45.6k50.5¢10.5¢$4,788−$18.2k$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes21.2k16.8¢15.5¢$3,291−$280$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes11.7k27.2¢21.5¢$2,511−$663$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes32.9k9¢5.5¢$1,811−$1,153$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes20.0k14.8¢9¢$1,803−$1,165$0
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes16.5k15.2¢10.5¢$1,729−$780$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes9,90818.9¢15.5¢$1,536−$341$0
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes9,10817.3¢12.5¢$1,139−$440$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes5,86816.3¢15.5¢$910−$46$0
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No2,29671¢33¢$758−$871$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes40.1k71.7¢1.2¢$461−$28.2k$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Yes16.2k2.6¢2.7¢$430+$8.11$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes1,12218.6¢20.5¢$230+$21$0
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes1,90734.7¢8.5¢$162−$499$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes6,5210.9¢0.4¢$23−$36$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes6049¢0.1¢$0.03−$29$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes1.15M13.2¢0¢$0−$152k+$412
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes342k8.8¢0¢$0−$30.1k+$11.4k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes334k21.8¢0¢$0−$72.6k+$969
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes265k22¢0¢$0−$58.2k+$10.6k
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes255k0.7¢0¢$0−$1,909$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes218k5¢0¢$0−$10.9k$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No205k12.1¢0¢$0−$24.8k$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes173k0.6¢0¢$0−$1,032−$11.9k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes137k12.2¢0¢$0−$16.8k$0
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes84.4k31.7¢0¢$0−$26.8k$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes58.3k10.7¢0¢$0−$6,206$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes37.4k9.7¢0¢$0−$3,638+$8.33
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes35.9k20¢0¢$0−$7,183$0
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes23.2k15.5¢0¢$0−$3,593$0
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?No10.0k33¢0¢$0−$3,300−$66
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes9,41421¢0¢$0−$1,973−$24
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes8,69540¢0¢$0−$3,479$0
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes4,16124.1¢0¢$0−$1,001$0
Trump renames AI by September 30?No2,13239.3¢0¢$0−$838−$18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Yes1,43914¢0¢$0−$201$0
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?Yes1,00512.2¢0¢$0−$123$0
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes5263.3¢0¢$0−$17−$684
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?Yes7029¢0¢$0−$20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?16.3¢5,652$92257%67
BUY YesUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?2.6¢16.2k$42257%67
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?12¢34.0k$4,08057%67
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?72.2¢9,086$6,56157%67
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?8¢2,160$17357%67
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?64.3¢22.4k$14.4k57%67Whale
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81¢39$3157%67
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?40¢569$22857%67
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?38.9¢1,342$52257%67
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?3.5¢10.8k$37457%67
BUY YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?9¢32.9k$2,96457%67
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?4¢3,008$12057%67
BUY YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?19¢9,410$1,78857%67
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?2.7¢7,429$19757%67
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?59¢6,944$4,09757%67
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?96¢13.7k$13.1k57%67Whale
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?13.7¢118k$16.2k57%67Whale
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?96.8¢2,419$2,34157%67
BUY NoWill the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?71¢2,296$1,62957%67
BUY YesWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?34.7¢1,907$66157%67