sharpside
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Aragorn-II

0xc9a…79d0@Aragorn_II_PM
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$27.0kvol $1.25M
PnL 30d+$1,472gains $1,603 · losses $14
PnL 7d−$16win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate76.2%adj 75.1% · 30d 88.9%
Open value$24.3kcash n/a
Positions52 / 967open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.8%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$28.6kbelow peak −$160Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

80/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 76.2% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d94
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity85

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed+$976Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$884Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? · Yesclosed+$869Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? · Noclosed+$767Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? · Noclosed+$759

Worst markets

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? · Noclosed−$917Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? · Yesclosed−$748Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · Noopen−$678Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? · Noclosed−$605Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Noclosed−$501

Open positions · 52

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No3,20077.6¢94.5¢$3,024+$541$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No3,10075.3¢82.5¢$2,558+$223$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes2,50081.2¢80.5¢$2,012−$18$0
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?No1,80968.8¢89.5¢$1,619+$375$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo1,50092¢91.5¢$1,373−$7.50$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No1,20291.6¢97¢$1,165+$65+$62
Iran leadership change by December 31?No1,08778.7¢88.5¢$962+$107$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No90074.8¢93.5¢$842+$169$0
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?No80576.1¢97.4¢$784+$171+$59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,00066¢68.5¢$685+$25$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No70086¢97.3¢$681+$79$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes70093.5¢95.8¢$670+$16$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No70087¢94.5¢$662+$53$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No70087¢83.5¢$585−$25$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?No60065.3¢95.5¢$573+$181$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No80063¢62.5¢$500−$4.00$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?No50096.8¢100¢$500+$16$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes67578.6¢71.6¢$483−$47−$72
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No50092¢95.5¢$478+$18$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No50087.8¢93.5¢$467+$29$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes50083.7¢87.3¢$436+$18$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50056.7¢86.4¢$432+$148$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes66768¢63.5¢$424−$30$0
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes50084.6¢78.4¢$392−$31$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No40093¢93.5¢$374+$2.00$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?No30089¢98.1¢$294+$27$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3,00019¢9¢$272−$299$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes40064¢61.5¢$246−$10$0
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?No25055¢96¢$240+$103$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No15077¢96.1¢$144+$29+$23
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No10040¢99.6¢$100+$60+$57
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes17583¢53.5¢$94−$52−$170
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes50063¢14.5¢$73−$243$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?No30062¢19.5¢$59−$128$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No20017¢26.5¢$53+$19$0
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?No1784¢89¢$15+$0.87$0
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes6011¢25¢$15+$8.40$0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes52513.1¢1.8¢$9.19−$60+$92
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No985.3¢97.8¢$8.95+$1.14+$319
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No60088¢0¢$0−$528−$150
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No50082¢0¢$0−$410$0
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?No50059¢0¢$0−$295$0
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes3000.4¢0¢$0−$1.20−$0.04
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes20080.4¢0¢$0−$161$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes20061¢0¢$0−$122$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes20015¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Yes20045¢0¢$0−$90−$3.46
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?No18885¢0¢$0−$160$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes10066¢0¢$0−$66−$117
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes10058¢0¢$0−$58$0
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Conor McGregor10033¢0¢$0−$33$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes2069.4¢0¢$0−$14−$120

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?87¢700$60976%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?63¢800$50476%80Sharp
BUY No2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House92¢1,500$1,38076%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?77¢300$23176%80Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?57¢175$10076%80Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?72¢100$7276%80Sharp
SELL NoWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?97.6¢100$9876%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?96.9¢400$38876%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?96.7¢30$2976%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?98.5¢500$49276%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?98.2¢254$24976%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?98¢137$13476%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?97¢158$15376%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?96.5¢310$29976%80Sharp
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?96.4¢500$48276%80Sharp
BUY YesWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?74¢200$14876%80Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?72¢300$21676%80Sharp
BUY YesWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?74¢500$37076%80Sharp
SELL NoWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?99.4¢100$9976%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?40¢200$8076%80Sharp