sharpside
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Traders/Rank #7,014

NoTeacher

0xcb4…be6d
Other
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$922vol $225k
PnL 30d+$667gains $2,034 · losses $1,355
PnL 7d+$46win rate 7d 64.3%
Win rate58.2%adj 57.9% · 30d 60.0%
Open value$2,349cash n/a
Positions25 / 525open / all-time
Max drawdown−51.5%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,905below peak −$38Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale42
Adjusted win rateraw 58.2% · shrunk toward 50%45
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity49

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yesclosed+$445Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? · Noclosed+$435Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$344Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$174Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed+$174

Worst markets

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · Noclosed−$368Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? · Yesclosed−$293Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026? · Noclosed−$266Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? · Yesclosed−$217Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026? · Yesclosed−$184

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No65934.2¢48.5¢$320+$94$0
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No53862.6¢52.5¢$283−$54+$41
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No30076.2¢79.7¢$239+$10+$2.30
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes22893.5¢84.5¢$193−$21+$1.09
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?No17087.3¢88.5¢$150+$2.03+$1.10
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?No16183.2¢81.5¢$131−$2.80+$17
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes15789¢81.5¢$128−$12$0
Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?No19458.2¢63.5¢$123+$10$0
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes25645.1¢41.5¢$106−$9.21$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?No15364.3¢68¢$104+$5.71$0
Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?No16063¢56¢$89−$11$0
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No10683¢75.5¢$80−$7.93$0
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes10862.1¢66¢$71+$4.22−$0.80
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?Yes7383¢88.5¢$65+$4.01+$4.14
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?No7189.2¢84¢$60−$3.71$0
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by October 31?No5685¢85¢$48$0$0
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes6071.4¢71.2¢$43−$0.14$0
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No11741.1¢34.5¢$40−$7.68$0
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No3984¢58.3¢$23−$10$0
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes5271.3¢2.9¢$15+$8.33$0
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes3053.3¢50¢$15−$1.00$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?No3324¢37¢$12+$4.28$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No2014¢29¢$5.80+$3.00+$3.16
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1336¢38.5¢$4.93+$0.32+$11
Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Yes483.1¢0.5¢$0.24−$1.24$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?69¢9$6.2158%58
BUY NoWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?69¢120$8358%58
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?72¢100$7258%58
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?71¢10$7.1058%58
BUY NoOpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?84¢5$4.3458%58
BUY NoOpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?90¢41$3758%58
BUY NoOpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?89¢25$2258%58
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?24¢4$1.0758%58
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?29¢26$7.6358%58
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?30¢19$5.7858%58
BUY YesWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?72.2¢40$2958%58
SELL NoWill the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?94.5¢11$1058%58
SELL NoWill the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?94.6¢30$2858%58
SELL NoWill the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?95.8¢41$3958%58
SELL NoMuse Charm released by December 31, 2026?41¢8$3.3858%58
BUY NoWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?14¢20$2.8058%58
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?76¢5$3.8058%58
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?70¢5$3.5058%58
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?64¢49$3158%58
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?63¢25$1658%58