PnL all-time−$1,927vol $221k
PnL 30d−$1,837gains $922 · losses $2,278
PnL 7d−$67win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate74.8%adj 71.4% · 30d 74.4%
Open value$543cash n/a
Positions5 / 132open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,831below peak −$3,101Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 74.8% · shrunk toward 50%79
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable71
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$994Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Noclosed+$479Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Noclosed+$400Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$346Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? · Noclosed+$288
Worst markets
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed−$1,995Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Noclosed−$1,598Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yesclosed−$987Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yesclosed−$870US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? · Noclosed−$421
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | No | 606 | 82.5¢ | 72¢ | $436 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | No | 104 | 96.2¢ | 90.9¢ | $94 | −$5.56 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 11 | 94¢ | 99.2¢ | $11 | +$0.55 | $0 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 1 | 86¢ | 81.5¢ | $0.95 | −$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Yes | 1 | 96.9¢ | 54.8¢ | $0.65 | −$0.50 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s