sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,023

AlfredTheShiller

0xcd6…68f5
WhalePnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$45.3kvol $4.04M
PnL 30d+$3,021gains $656 · losses $51
PnL 7d−$1,549win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate67.3%adj 66.7% · 30d 60.0%
Open value$45.8kcash n/a
Positions24 / 1,374open / all-time
Max drawdown−41.1%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 23d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$45.7kbelow peak −$13.8kOct 10

SharpScore inputs

62/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale67
Adjusted win rateraw 67.3% · shrunk toward 50%67
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d21
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity59

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 24

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No19.0k50¢91.4¢$17.4k+$7,857$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No13.2k80.6¢93.5¢$12.3k+$1,696+$299
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes7,34253.6¢63¢$4,625+$692$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes10,00010¢27.5¢$2,750+$1,750$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes19.0k50¢8.6¢$1,644−$7,857$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No2,50069.2¢64.5¢$1,612−$117$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes7,00045.1¢17.5¢$1,225−$1,935+$573
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No1,00283.6¢98.5¢$987+$150$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No1,00050.5¢90.5¢$905+$400$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,00062.2¢88.9¢$889+$268$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes2,00028.9¢22.5¢$450−$129+$44
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Yes2,00017.9¢18¢$360+$2.25$0
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes10.0k11.5¢2.9¢$295−$855$0
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Yes2,01721.2¢7.4¢$149−$279$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No3,00047¢4.5¢$134−$1,277+$5.63
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes2,0005¢3.1¢$61−$39$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes50020¢4.9¢$25−$76+$151
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes3,3334.3¢0.7¢$23−$120$0
Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes1473¢6.5¢$9.58+$5.16$0
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes2008¢3.4¢$6.80−$9.20$0
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes48027.2¢0.8¢$3.84−$127+$35
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes26121¢1.2¢$3.01−$52+$6.95
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes4,6250.5¢0.1¢$2.31−$21$0
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes6631.7¢0.2¢$0.99−$10$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?83.6¢1,002$83767%62
BUY YesFed rate hike in 2026?82.9¢877$72767%62
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?72¢277$19967%62
BUY YesWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?0.9¢3,000$2767%62
BUY YesWill Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?77¢105$8167%62
BUY NoWill the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 10-15%?88¢43$3867%62
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?52¢497$25867%62
BUY YesFed rate hike in 2026?69¢4,283$2,95667%62
BUY YesRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?19¢3,000$57067%62
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83¢1,000$83067%62
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83¢2,000$1,66067%62
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47¢5,000$2,35067%62
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?41¢1,000$41067%62
BUY YesWill Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?21¢8$1.7367%62
BUY YesWill Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?99¢747$74067%62
BUY YesWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?89.6¢81$7367%62
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?83.8¢898$75267%62
SELL YesWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?54¢795$42967%62
SELL YesWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?21¢906$19067%62
BUY YesWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?20¢587$11767%62