sharpside
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Traders/Rank #13,765

FrankyFourFingers

0xcdb…1926
WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$7,217vol $6.86M
PnL 30d−$982gains $1,342 · losses $200
PnL 7d−$661win rate 7d 87.5%
Win rate65.5%adj 64.9% · 30d 77.4%
Open value$15.5kcash n/a
Positions1,932 / 6,670open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.5ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$7,833below peak −$20.4kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

38/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 65.5% · shrunk toward 50%62
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d91
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes70294.9¢96.1¢$674+$8.08+$1,156
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No59668¢99.9¢$595+$190$0
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?No52393.7¢95.8¢$501+$11$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes70064¢63.5¢$445−$3.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes76726¢38.5¢$295+$96$0
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?Yes30090¢94.8¢$284+$14−$0.14
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?Yes35467.1¢75.5¢$267+$30+$1.16
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?Yes26392¢97.1¢$255+$13$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes55053.7¢40.5¢$223−$73+$4.00
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes26210.9¢83.4¢$219+$190$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes34943¢61.5¢$215+$65$0
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?No20094.1¢99.1¢$198+$9.90−$1.21
Will Alberta join the US? No20097.8¢99¢$198+$2.30$0
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No20088¢97.4¢$195+$19$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat?Yes20090¢96.6¢$193+$13$0
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No20085¢96.6¢$193+$23$0
Maduro guilty of all counts?No26567¢72.5¢$192+$14$0
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes20089¢93.6¢$187+$9.20$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes78511.1¢23.5¢$184+$98$0
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?No15584¢99.7¢$154+$24$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?Yes27558.9¢54.5¢$150−$12$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-07 House seat?Yes13793¢96.8¢$133+$5.15−$2.55
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes62010¢20.5¢$127+$65$0
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?No12893.9¢97.9¢$126+$5.07$0
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No14929.4¢81¢$121+$77$0
Will Gabriel Pidomson win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election?No12090¢98.8¢$119+$11$0
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?No12394¢94.2¢$116+$0.25$0
Will the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes16076¢70.5¢$113−$8.80$0
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes11988¢92.9¢$110+$5.82$0
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?No13771.3¢77¢$106+$7.86$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes60012¢16.5¢$99+$27$0
Will the Republican Party win the MO-01 House seat?No10090¢98.7¢$99+$8.70−$2.04
Will Dumo Lulu-Briggs win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election?No10089¢96.9¢$97+$7.85$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3,9472.3¢2.5¢$97+$5.92$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?Yes10093¢96.2¢$96+$3.15−$5.00
Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?No10088¢95.4¢$95+$7.40$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?Yes10093.4¢93.4¢$93$0+$0.20
Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?Yes10090¢92.5¢$93+$2.50$0
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?No10039.4¢90.5¢$91+$51$0
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?No10036¢89.8¢$90+$54$0
Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?No10088¢89.6¢$90+$1.65$0
Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?No8794.3¢96.6¢$84+$2.00$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes8046.7¢10.2¢$82+$27$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No8993¢89.9¢$80−$2.81$0
Will the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?Yes30834.6¢25.5¢$79−$28$0
Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?Yes20021¢38.9¢$78+$36$0
Will Marianne Meed Ward win the 2026 Burlington mayoral election?Yes11759.4¢65.5¢$76+$7.08$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes22018.5¢34.5¢$76+$35$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?No9648.9¢79¢$76+$29$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat?No7993¢96.2¢$76+$2.51$0
Will the Republicans win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?No10075¢75.5¢$76+$0.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes60016¢12.5¢$75−$21$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-31 House seat?No7892¢96.2¢$75+$3.27$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-02 House seat?No7991¢94.5¢$75+$2.77$0
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?Yes9948.9¢75.5¢$75+$26$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No40215.1¢18.5¢$74+$14$0
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026?No8033.6¢92.5¢$74+$47+$0.30
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?No7382¢97.3¢$71+$11−$21
Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?Yes22414¢30¢$67+$36$0
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Yes20020¢33.5¢$67+$27$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-06 House seat?Yes7090¢95.4¢$67+$3.78+$0.50
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?No7377¢91.5¢$67+$11$0
Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes10088¢63.5¢$64−$25$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?No10080¢63.5¢$64−$17−$14
Anduril IPO before 2027?No6458¢97.6¢$62+$25−$6.21
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?Yes6691¢95¢$62+$2.59−$1.00
Will the Republican Party win the PA-14 House seat?Yes6392¢96¢$61+$2.53−$0.60
Will the Republican Party win the CA-36 House seat?No6192¢97.5¢$60+$3.37$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat?No6090¢98.4¢$59+$5.04$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes20064¢29.5¢$59−$69$0
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes6091¢97.2¢$58+$3.69−$43
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?Yes6093¢96.7¢$58+$2.20−$0.29
Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?Yes6090¢96.2¢$58+$3.69$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?Yes1,4319.5¢4¢$57−$79+$35
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes6682.8¢83.5¢$55+$0.44−$30
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No6575.2¢84¢$55+$5.78$0
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes50023.8¢10.5¢$53−$66$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes48511.8¢10.6¢$51−$5.74$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No5455.4¢93.8¢$51+$21$0
Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?Yes5390¢94.5¢$51+$2.40$0
Will the Democratic Party win the DE-AL House seat?Yes5191¢98.3¢$50+$3.70$0
Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat?No5190¢97.8¢$50+$3.99$0
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5?Yes6678.7¢7.5¢$50−$7.82+$0.29
Will the Republican Party win the MI-13 House seat?No5091¢99.8¢$50+$4.40$0
Vanta IPO before 2027?No5063¢99¢$50+$18$0
Will the Republican Party win the IL-09 House seat?No5094¢98.8¢$49+$2.38$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat?No5091¢98.6¢$49+$3.77$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat?No5090¢98.4¢$49+$4.20+$1.65
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?Yes5090¢98.4¢$49+$4.20$0
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat?Yes5090¢98.3¢$49+$4.13$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?Yes5090¢98¢$49+$3.98$0
Will the Republican Party win the CO-06 House seat?No5190¢95.5¢$49+$2.81$0
Will the Democratic Party win the ID-01 House seat?No5090¢97.7¢$49+$3.85$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-07 House seat?Yes5090¢97.7¢$49+$3.85$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-02 House seat?Yes5090¢97.7¢$49+$3.83$0
Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?No5090¢97.6¢$49+$3.80$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-14 House seat?Yes5591.6¢88.5¢$49−$1.72$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?No5090¢97.3¢$49+$3.63−$4.00
Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?No5091¢98.2¢$49+$3.56−$1.00
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-11 House seat?Yes5090¢97.2¢$49+$3.60−$1.14

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat?99.9¢300$30066%38
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64¢700$44866%38
BUY NoWill US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?77¢73$5666%38
BUY YesWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?14¢893$12566%38
BUY YesWill the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?35¢200$7066%38
BUY YesWill the Parti Québécois win by between 30 and 39 seats?50¢106$5366%38
BUY YesWill the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?34¢108$3766%38
BUY YesWill the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?20.4¢18$3.6866%38
BUY YesWill the CAQ win 10-14 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?7.7¢35$2.7366%38
BUY YesWill the CAQ win 5-9 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?24.7¢175$4366%38
BUY YesWill the CAQ win 5-9 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?18.4¢337$6266%38
BUY YesWill the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?10.9¢262$2966%38
BUY YesWill Nathalie Roy win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election?14¢50$7.0066%38
BUY YesWill Geneviève Hébert win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?13¢50$6.5066%38
BUY YesWill Geneviève Hébert win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?12¢341$4166%38
BUY YesWill Étienne Grandmont win the next Taschereau Quebec National Assembly election?39.8¢337$13466%38
BUY YesWill Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?24¢153$3766%38
BUY YesWill Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?21¢50$1166%38
BUY YesWill Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?21.6¢246$5366%38
BUY YesWill Gisèle Pouhe Njall win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?22.1¢106$2366%38