sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Rank #775

cynical-reason

0xce6…cc64@cynical_reason
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$261kvol $15.3M
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate72.7%adj 71.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions96 / 359open / all-time
Max drawdown−20.5%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 4mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$264kbelow peak −$4,963Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

65/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale77
Adjusted win rateraw 72.7% · shrunk toward 50%78
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity80

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 96

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes30.0k0.6¢0¢$0−$180$0
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes20.6k9.9¢0¢$0−$2,040$0
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Katy Perry be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Mikey Madison be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Beyoncé be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Jannik Sinner be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes14.1k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?No13.4k24.8¢0¢$0−$3,317$0
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Yes13.0k6¢0¢$0−$780$0
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?Yes12.8k0.2¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?Yes12.7k2.7¢0¢$0−$343$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?No12.0k42.6¢0¢$0−$5,118−$13.2k
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?No11.0k4.6¢0¢$0−$510$0
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year?Yes11.0k4.8¢0¢$0−$530+$58
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?Yes9,0058¢0¢$0−$720+$3,440
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Yes9,0002.1¢0¢$0−$189$0
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Yes9,0000.3¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Yes9,0000.3¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Yes7,7412¢0¢$0−$155$0
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?No7,41134¢0¢$0−$2,520+$161
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?No7,08223¢0¢$0−$1,629+$506
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?Yes6,0006.3¢0¢$0−$378$0
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?No5,82023¢0¢$0−$1,338$0
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?No5,54320¢0¢$0−$1,108$0
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?Yes4,73346¢0¢$0−$2,176$0
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?Yes4,59413¢0¢$0−$597$0
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?No4,58235.7¢0¢$0−$1,635$0
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?No4,4891¢0¢$0−$45$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes4,36525.4¢0¢$0−$1,110+$275
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?Yes4,3112.4¢0¢$0−$103$0
Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?Yes4,1123.3¢0¢$0−$138$0
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Yes4,0700.3¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes3,8480.2¢0¢$0−$7.70+$195
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?Yes3,8434¢0¢$0−$154$0
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes3,6533¢0¢$0−$109+$600
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?Yes3,4273.3¢0¢$0−$112$0
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes3,3239.3¢0¢$0−$308+$88
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?No3,25170.1¢0¢$0−$2,279−$764
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?Yes2,81635.5¢0¢$0−$1,000$0
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?No2,81136¢0¢$0−$1,012$0
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes2,73313.5¢0¢$0−$369+$12
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?Yes2,55022¢0¢$0−$561$0
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No2,35215.5¢0¢$0−$364−$5,358
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?Yes2,0014.3¢0¢$0−$85$0
Panathinaikos vs. BC DubaiBC Dubai2,00021¢0¢$0−$420$0
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?Yes1,7232.4¢0¢$0−$41$0
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?Yes1,29526.3¢0¢$0−$340−$2,914
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes1,22124¢0¢$0−$293+$1,545
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes1,07135¢0¢$0−$375$0
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday?Yes1,00028¢0¢$0−$280$0
Grokipedia released by October 31?No62837.7¢0¢$0−$236$0
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?No62629¢0¢$0−$182$0
Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?Yes5851¢0¢$0−$5.85$0
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?Yes44910.5¢0¢$0−$47$0
Will Trump invoke War Powers again by October 31?Yes44712.6¢0¢$0−$56$0
French election called by October 31?Yes43763¢0¢$0−$275$0
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?No41810¢0¢$0−$42$0
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?Yes4095¢0¢$0−$20+$2,485
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No37045¢0¢$0−$167$0
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?No30237¢0¢$0−$112$0
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?Yes28145¢0¢$0−$126$0
Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?Yes2661.9¢0¢$0−$5.05$0
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?Yes2355.7¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes2260¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?No20429.1¢0¢$0−$59$0
Will GPT-5 be released on August 6?Yes1902¢0¢$0−$3.80$0
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes1261.4¢0¢$0−$1.76$0
Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiYes11973¢0¢$0−$87$0
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?Yes9650¢0¢$0−$48$0
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?No8612¢0¢$0−$10$0
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?Yes750.3¢0¢$0−$0.22+$25
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday?Yes6317¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?Yes214.1¢0¢$0−$0.86$0
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No2121¢0¢$0−$4.38$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?No2047¢0¢$0−$9.43$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?No1420¢0¢$0−$2.80$0
Will no leader be out in 2025?Yes918.6¢0¢$0−$1.67$0
Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?Yes81.1¢0¢$0−$0.09$0
Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No15.1¢0¢$0−$0.05$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?26¢264$6973%65
BUY YesKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?51¢67$3473%65
BUY YesOdds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?84¢6$5.0473%65
SELL YesWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?75¢261$19673%65
SELL NoWill António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?99.9¢2,621$2,61973%65
SELL YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?6¢42.3k$2,53573%65
SELL YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?1.1¢24.4k$26873%65
SELL YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?11¢11.7k$1,28773%65
BUY NoUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?97.5¢20.0k$19.5k73%65Whale
BUY NoUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?97.5¢30.0k$29.3k73%65Whale
BUY NoUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?97.5¢50.0k$48.8k73%65Whale
BUY YesWill Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?6.9¢522$3673%65
BUY YesWill Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?4¢650$2673%65
BUY YesWill Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?0.6¢1,752$1173%65
BUY YesWill Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?7¢106$7.3973%65
BUY YesWill Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?6.4¢290$1973%65
BUY YesWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?99.9¢100$10073%65
BUY NoWill António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?97¢3,000$2,91073%65
BUY YesWill Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?81¢791$64073%65
SELL YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?84¢1,995$1,67673%65