sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,305

PiEDawg

0xcf4…b321@PiEDawg_
PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$21.7kvol $494k
PnL 30d+$176kgains $19.8k · losses $6,565
PnL 7d+$162kwin rate 7d 37.3%
Win rate37.3%adj 37.8% · 30d 37.3%
Open value$165cash n/a
Positions2,000 / 4,095open / all-time
Max drawdown−6.2%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 9m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$221kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

62/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 37.3% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity94

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Noclosed+$5,427Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$1,984Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Noclosed+$1,316Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? · Noclosed+$879Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Noclosed+$806

Worst markets

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$849Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$776Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$598Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? · Yesopen−$528Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? · Yesopen−$374

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes5011¢10.5¢$5.25−$0.25$0
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes5011.4¢9.7¢$4.83−$0.88$0
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes469¢9.5¢$4.38+$0.23$0
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,3431.7¢0.1¢$3.67−$123$0
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,0871.7¢0.1¢$3.54−$119−$4.17
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes2,1631.7¢0.1¢$1.08−$36−$84
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,8013.1¢0.1¢$0.90−$55$0
Will NEC win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.7¢$0.61−$2.15$0
Will Willem II win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.5¢$0.52−$2.25$0
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes9813.3¢0.1¢$0.49−$32$0
Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Yes97720¢0.1¢$0.49−$195$0
Will SC Cambuur win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.5¢$0.47−$2.29$0
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7582.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7542.9¢0.1¢$0.38−$21$0
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7382.9¢0.1¢$0.37−$21$0
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes7382.9¢0.1¢$0.37−$21$0
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Yes65620¢0.1¢$0.33−$131$0
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Yes65620¢0.1¢$0.33−$131$0
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes6122.8¢0.1¢$0.31−$17$0
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes6122.8¢0.1¢$0.31−$17$0
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes6122.8¢0.1¢$0.31−$17$0
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes6122.8¢0.1¢$0.31−$17$0
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes6122.8¢0.1¢$0.31−$17$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes60611.1¢0.1¢$0.30−$67$0
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes5882.5¢0.1¢$0.29−$14$0
Will ADO Den Haag win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.3¢$0.28−$2.48$0
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes5282.9¢0.1¢$0.26−$15−$5.80
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2633.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$9.11$0
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2633.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$9.11$0
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2633.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$9.11$0
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2633.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$9.11$0
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2563.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$8.89−$0.23
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2563.6¢0.1¢$0.26−$8.89−$0.23
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes4892.9¢0.1¢$0.24−$14−$6.88
Will Central African Republic win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group F?Yes4814.3¢0.5¢$0.24−$6.68−$0.45
Will Excelsior win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.3¢$0.23−$2.53$0
Will Go Ahead Eagles win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.3¢$0.23−$2.53$0
Will Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes1562¢0.2¢$0.23−$2.95$0
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4621.8¢0.1¢$0.23−$7.88$0
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes1503.3¢0.2¢$0.23−$4.79$0
Will Fortuna Sittard win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will PEC Zwolle win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will Utrecht win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will Sparta Rotterdam win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will Groningen win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will Heerenveen win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will SC Telstar win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?Yes942.9¢0.2¢$0.19−$2.58$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election by 0%-50%?Yes467.7¢0.4¢$0.18−$3.35−$0.46
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3643.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$12$0
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3643.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$12$0
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3643.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$12$0
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3643.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$12$0
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3643.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$12$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 180m and 190m by October 31?Yes32314.3¢0.1¢$0.16−$46$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 190m and 200m by October 31?Yes32314.3¢0.1¢$0.16−$46$0
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes3143.6¢0.1¢$0.16−$11$0
Will Croatia win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?Yes3085.3¢0.1¢$0.15−$16$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?51¢5$2.7037%62
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?0.4¢2$0.0137%62
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?30¢2$0.5437%62
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?0.4¢195$0.7837%62
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?90¢197$17737%62
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?55¢202$11137%62
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?89.2¢197$17637%62
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?6¢20$1.2037%62
SELL NoWill Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?98.6¢1$0.4937%62
SELL NoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?82¢6$5.0337%62
SELL YesWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?2¢31$0.6237%62
SELL NoWill PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?95¢0$0.3937%62
SELL YesWill Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.1¢1$037%62
SELL YesWill Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.1¢1$037%62
SELL YesWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?80¢1$0.9037%62
SELL YesWill Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.1¢260$0.2637%62
SELL YesWill Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.1¢260$0.2637%62
BUY NoWill Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?82.4¢259$21337%62
BUY NoWill Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?98.7¢261$25737%62
SELL YesWill Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.1¢260$0.2637%62