| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 16.2k | 64.1¢ | 81¢ | $13.1k | +$2,729 | +$52 | |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | No | 13.0k | 30.5¢ | 80.5¢ | $10.4k | +$6,472 | +$47 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,761 | 72.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $4,356 | +$896 | +$31 | |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 2,124 | 55.1¢ | 82¢ | $1,742 | +$572 | $0 | |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 2,047 | 41.3¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,709 | +$865 | $0 | |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | No | 705 | 61¢ | 83¢ | $585 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 471 | 51.7¢ | 78¢ | $367 | +$124 | +$23 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 430 | 17.9¢ | 71.3¢ | $307 | +$230 | +$552 | |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 385 | 78¢ | 70.5¢ | $271 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | Yes | 405 | 74¢ | 48¢ | $195 | −$105 | $0 | |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 8,602 | 1.5¢ | 2.2¢ | $189 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | Yes | 317 | 55.9¢ | 55¢ | $175 | −$2.94 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 690 | 29.3¢ | 18.5¢ | $128 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 73 | 32.6¢ | 88.5¢ | $65 | +$41 | +$16 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 64 | 83.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $58 | +$4.60 | $0 | |
| Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 77 | 55.4¢ | 72.8¢ | $56 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Yes | 714 | 14¢ | 6.5¢ | $46 | −$54 | $0 | |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 47 | 65.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $41 | +$10 | +$4.93 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | Yes | 175 | 28¢ | 22.5¢ | $39 | −$9.64 | $0 | |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 39 | 71.4¢ | 86.5¢ | $34 | +$5.90 | +$283 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Yes | 488 | 20.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $27 | −$73 | $0 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 29 | 35¢ | 90¢ | $26 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 44 | 45¢ | 49.5¢ | $22 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | Yes | 81 | 22.1¢ | 25¢ | $20 | +$2.34 | $0 | |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? | No | 26 | 76¢ | 74.5¢ | $20 | −$0.39 | −$1.01 | |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 25 | 79¢ | 71.5¢ | $18 | −$1.90 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 21 | 48¢ | 81.5¢ | $17 | +$6.98 | $0 | |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 535 | 4.3¢ | 3.2¢ | $17 | −$6.15 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 17 | 73¢ | 80.2¢ | $14 | +$1.21 | +$5.62 | |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 17 | 78.1¢ | 80.5¢ | $14 | +$0.41 | +$5.69 | |
| Will Euphoria rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? | Yes | 23 | 70¢ | 59¢ | $13 | −$2.51 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | No | 23 | 43¢ | 57¢ | $13 | +$3.26 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 35 | 42.8¢ | 37.5¢ | $13 | −$1.86 | $0 | |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? | No | 13 | 83¢ | 95.5¢ | $13 | +$1.64 | +$2.35 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 11 | 91¢ | 96.8¢ | $11 | +$0.63 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 59 | 17¢ | 15.5¢ | $9.12 | −$0.88 | $0 | |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | Yes | 20 | 50¢ | 43.5¢ | $8.70 | −$1.30 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? | No | 11 | 46¢ | 79¢ | $8.59 | +$3.59 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 9 | 57¢ | 93.5¢ | $8.20 | +$3.20 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 22 | 45.9¢ | 37.3¢ | $8.12 | −$1.88 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 33 | 30¢ | 16.5¢ | $5.50 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 7 | 68¢ | 74.5¢ | $5.48 | +$0.48 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | Yes | 20 | 45¢ | 25.5¢ | $5.10 | −$3.90 | $0 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 5 | 76¢ | 98.4¢ | $4.69 | +$1.07 | +$33 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 4 | 67.7¢ | 96.3¢ | $4.27 | +$1.27 | +$64 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 4 | 79.7¢ | 96.6¢ | $4.17 | +$0.73 | +$8.93 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 4 | 81¢ | 95¢ | $4.13 | +$0.61 | +$1.12 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 5 | 54¢ | 85.5¢ | $3.93 | +$1.45 | +$22 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 4 | 62¢ | 93.5¢ | $3.80 | +$1.28 | +$1.23 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 4 | 76.3¢ | 94.5¢ | $3.79 | +$0.73 | +$40 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 4 | 51¢ | 78.5¢ | $3.08 | +$1.08 | $0 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 3 | 82.9¢ | 96.1¢ | $3.04 | +$0.42 | +$27 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | 2 | 87¢ | 88.5¢ | $2.03 | +$0.03 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 3 | 50¢ | 62.5¢ | $2.01 | +$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 4 | 23¢ | 38.5¢ | $1.67 | +$0.67 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 2 | 84.9¢ | 95.5¢ | $1.63 | +$0.18 | +$0.28 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 2 | 44¢ | 62.5¢ | $1.42 | +$0.42 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 3 | 29¢ | 36.5¢ | $1.26 | +$0.26 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 1 | 75¢ | 89.5¢ | $1.19 | +$0.19 | $0 | |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1 | 79.2¢ | 92.6¢ | $1.17 | +$0.17 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 1 | 84.3¢ | 97¢ | $1.15 | +$0.15 | $0 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 16 | 6.3¢ | 7.2¢ | $1.14 | +$0.14 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 1 | 71¢ | 79.5¢ | $1.12 | +$0.12 | $0 | |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | No | 1 | 93¢ | 94.5¢ | $1.09 | +$0.02 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 2 | 64.9¢ | 70¢ | $1.08 | +$0.08 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1 | 80¢ | 83.5¢ | $1.04 | +$0.04 | $0 | |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 2 | 55¢ | 55.5¢ | $1.01 | +$0.01 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 1 | 80¢ | 80.5¢ | $1.01 | +$0.01 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | No | 1 | 80¢ | 79¢ | $0.99 | −$0.01 | $0 | |
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 1 | 70¢ | 67¢ | $0.96 | −$0.04 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Yes | 2 | 42¢ | 39.5¢ | $0.94 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 1 | 85¢ | 79.5¢ | $0.94 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | Yes | 1 | 80¢ | 73.5¢ | $0.92 | −$0.08 | $0 | |
| Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | No | 1 | 90¢ | 81¢ | $0.90 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 2 | 65.4¢ | 58.8¢ | $0.90 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will Stranger Things rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? | No | 1 | 80¢ | 58¢ | $0.72 | −$0.28 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | Yes | 2 | 66.6¢ | 46.5¢ | $0.70 | −$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | No | 2 | 61¢ | 39.5¢ | $0.65 | −$0.35 | $0 | |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | Yes | 10 | 10¢ | 3.5¢ | $0.34 | −$0.66 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | No | 50 | 20¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.30 | −$9.70 | $0 | |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | Yes | 4,688 | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | −$11 | |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1,666 | 58.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$981 | −$2.31 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 1,485 | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$135 | $0 | |
| Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | Yes | 1,345 | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | −$2.83 | |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | Yes | 1,115 | 23.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$262 | −$1.05 | |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | No | 1,087 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | −$1.91 | |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | Yes | 1,070 | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$163 | +$1.95 | |
| Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 434 | 29.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$130 | −$3.64 | |
| Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | Yes | 122 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.40 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 75 | 78.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026? | Yes | 57 | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | $0 | |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 45 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 43 | 47¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | No | 32 | 62¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.38 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | Yes | 25 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" at the Military Mothers event? | Yes | 20 | 50.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.20 | |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 12 | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.95 | −$58 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 8 | 59¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 8 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | No | 7 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
