| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 444 | 56.3¢ | 55.4¢ | $246 | −$4.09 | +$211 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | Yes | 299 | 80.3¢ | 62¢ | $186 | −$55 | −$7.89 | |
| Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below? | No | 652 | 24.3¢ | 21.5¢ | $140 | −$19 | $0 | |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | No | 198 | 38.6¢ | 64¢ | $127 | +$50 | +$19 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 250 | 45.4¢ | 48.1¢ | $120 | +$6.60 | −$62 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on October 11? | No | 106 | 74¢ | 100¢ | $106 | +$27 | +$5.82 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | Yes | 300 | 15.2¢ | 34.6¢ | $104 | +$58 | +$37 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | Yes | 182 | 60¢ | 53¢ | $96 | −$13 | +$153 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 43.4¢ | 44.6¢ | $89 | +$2.39 | −$62 | |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | Yes | 250 | 34.6¢ | 32¢ | $80 | −$6.54 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 11? | No | 76 | 49¢ | 100¢ | $76 | +$39 | +$0.61 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 11? | No | 74 | 75¢ | 100¢ | $74 | +$18 | −$0.01 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 12? | No | 160 | 51.2¢ | 41.5¢ | $66 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026? | No | 322 | 38¢ | 20¢ | $64 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 21¢ | 20.5¢ | $62 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15? | No | 58 | 91¢ | 96.2¢ | $55 | +$2.96 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 11? | No | 55 | 60.7¢ | 100¢ | $55 | +$21 | +$7.33 | |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 73 | 66¢ | 68.5¢ | $50 | +$1.82 | +$0.76 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 101 | 44¢ | 48.5¢ | $49 | +$4.52 | +$33 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | Yes | 300 | 19.6¢ | 16.1¢ | $48 | −$11 | −$34 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 23¢ | 14.5¢ | $43 | −$26 | −$74 | |
| Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026? | No | 50 | 85¢ | 86¢ | $43 | +$0.50 | −$7.21 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 963 | 22¢ | 3.9¢ | $37 | −$174 | +$15 | |
| Will Rishi Sharma win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? | No | 48 | 57¢ | 76.5¢ | $37 | +$9.36 | +$0.42 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 18¢ | 11.5¢ | $34 | −$20 | −$31 | |
| Will Republicans win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Iowa? | Yes | 300 | 19.7¢ | 11¢ | $33 | −$26 | $0 | |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 17¢ | 10.5¢ | $32 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | No | 96 | 52¢ | 30.6¢ | $29 | −$21 | −$0.38 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | Yes | 299 | 39.2¢ | 8.5¢ | $25 | −$92 | +$148 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 44 | 61.5¢ | 52¢ | $23 | −$4.22 | +$25 | |
| Will the Student List win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | Yes | 97 | 18.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $19 | +$0.65 | +$3.02 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | Yes | 299 | 6.9¢ | 6.3¢ | $19 | −$1.94 | −$4.71 | |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | No | 25 | 61.8¢ | 74.2¢ | $19 | +$3.09 | −$22 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 11? | Yes | 16 | 29¢ | 100¢ | $16 | +$12 | +$9.05 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 6.7¢ | 5.4¢ | $16 | −$4.05 | +$1.99 | |
| Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026? | Yes | 104 | 16¢ | 14¢ | $15 | −$2.08 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | Yes | 55 | 23¢ | 23¢ | $13 | $0 | $0 | |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 802 | 5.1¢ | 1.6¢ | $12 | −$29 | −$2.62 | |
| Will Yui Hasegawa finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 64 | 63.4¢ | 17.5¢ | $11 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 12? | Yes | 39 | 31¢ | 28¢ | $11 | −$1.17 | −$2.94 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 11? | Yes | 11 | 50¢ | 100¢ | $11 | +$5.39 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 299 | 3.2¢ | 3.6¢ | $11 | +$1.19 | −$54 | |
| Will Republicans win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats? | Yes | 49 | 16.2¢ | 20¢ | $9.82 | +$1.87 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on October 11? | Yes | 9 | 46.2¢ | 100¢ | $9.00 | +$4.84 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats? | Yes | 49 | 20.6¢ | 16.5¢ | $8.04 | −$1.99 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 12? | Yes | 52 | 12¢ | 13.5¢ | $7.00 | +$0.78 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 474 | 12¢ | 1.5¢ | $6.87 | −$50 | −$1.52 | |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Republicans win Iowa? | Yes | 26 | 5¢ | 24.5¢ | $6.30 | +$5.01 | $0 | |
| Will Türkiye be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27? | No | 31 | 31¢ | 18¢ | $5.58 | −$4.03 | +$0.87 | |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio and Iowa Senate seats, and Republicans win Maine? | Yes | 28 | 29¢ | 19.5¢ | $5.47 | −$2.65 | +$3.60 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 12? | No | 4 | 85¢ | 86.5¢ | $3.56 | +$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? | Yes | 1,182 | 0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $3.55 | −$0.45 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 12? | Yes | 47 | 15.5¢ | 5.3¢ | $2.48 | −$4.76 | +$0.84 | |
| Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16? | Yes | 91 | 20¢ | 2.7¢ | $2.46 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | No | 5 | 39¢ | 48.5¢ | $2.40 | +$0.47 | −$11 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4 | 41¢ | 65.5¢ | $2.37 | +$0.89 | +$101 | |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | Yes | 21 | 18.8¢ | 10.5¢ | $2.25 | −$1.78 | −$39 | |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | No | 5 | 19.4¢ | 42¢ | $2.15 | +$1.15 | −$58 | |
| Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 17 | 31¢ | 10.4¢ | $1.74 | −$3.44 | −$35 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%? | Yes | 766 | 0.8¢ | 0.2¢ | $1.53 | −$4.46 | −$0.02 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? | Yes | 364 | 0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $1.09 | −$0.03 | +$0.37 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? | Yes | 880 | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.88 | −$17 | +$0.07 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 12? | No | 13 | 43.9¢ | 5.5¢ | $0.71 | −$4.93 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | No | 2 | 31.9¢ | 38¢ | $0.63 | +$0.10 | −$57 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? | No | 2 | 10.1¢ | 18¢ | $0.40 | +$0.18 | $0 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | Yes | 1 | 10.7¢ | 5.9¢ | $0.07 | −$0.06 | +$11 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on October 11? | Yes | 100 | 26.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.05 | −$26 | −$13 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? | Yes | 33 | 0.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.03 | −$0.11 | $0 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%? | Yes | 43 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.02 | −$0.11 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2 | 13.3¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.02 | −$0.30 | +$39 | |
| Will David Martinez be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 18 | 0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.01 | −$0.15 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 11? | Yes | 11 | 7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.01 | −$0.78 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 11? | No | 10 | 64¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.01 | −$6.52 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 11? | No | 8 | 52¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | −$4.34 | −$22 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 11? | Yes | 5 | 22¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 11? | Yes | 4 | 55¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | −$2.10 | −$32 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on October 11? | No | 4 | 43¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | −$1.51 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 11? | Yes | 3 | 47¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | −$1.34 | +$2.90 | |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,247 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | +$0.60 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | No | 1,200 | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$59 | +$1.13 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 1? | No | 1,180 | 27.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$324 | −$4.23 | |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 802 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 760 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.62 | −$0.62 | |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 735 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | −$1.68 | |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 641 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.33 | $0 | |
| Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 597 | 24.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$147 | −$45 | |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | No | 565 | 37.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$214 | +$79 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3? | No | 519 | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$9.42 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? | No | 421 | 44.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$187 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | No | 409 | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$73 | +$68 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 1? | No | 372 | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$143 | +$1.02 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 11? | No | 318 | 66.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$211 | +$3.11 | |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | 300 | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.86 | $0 | |
| Will Saint-Martin win on 2026-10-06? | No | 300 | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$38 | |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | +$1.51 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | Yes | 300 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | −$131 | |