sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,920

btfrs

0xd17…bb3a
WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSportCryptoOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,441vol $130k
PnL 30d−$1,483gains $1,317 · losses $2,128
PnL 7d−$576win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate75.5%adj 73.5% · 30d 61.3%
Open value$7,825cash n/a
Positions29 / 266open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$23below peak −$2,607Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

43/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 75.5% · shrunk toward 50%84
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable81
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d90
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yesclosed+$2,418Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yesclosed+$696Ethereum above $2,400 on June 27? · Yesclosed+$599Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? · Yesclosed+$512Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? · Noclosed+$445

Worst markets

FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) · Man Cityclosed−$3,000Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET · Upclosed−$1,460Will Russia capture Yablunivka before July? · Yesclosed−$674Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4? · Noopen−$517England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Englandclosed−$405

Open positions · 29

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes72968.6¢83.5¢$609+$109$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?No74367.3¢79.5¢$590+$90$0
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in October?No59577.2¢90.5¢$539+$79$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No53893¢93.5¢$503+$2.69$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes53874.3¢82.5¢$444+$44$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No46087¢95.5¢$439+$39$0
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in October?No47962.6¢84¢$403+$103$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No70642.5¢56¢$395+$95$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No40873.6¢95.4¢$389+$89$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No36183¢99.2¢$358+$58$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes36482.4¢96¢$350+$50$0
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?No35285.1¢87.7¢$309+$9.12$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No32692¢94.5¢$308+$8.15$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No40075¢76.5¢$306+$6.00$0
Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No31280¢90.8¢$284+$34$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes32976.1¢85.5¢$281+$31$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No32362¢85.5¢$276+$76$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes30758¢78.5¢$241+$63$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes24282.8¢87.5¢$211+$11$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No22091¢93.5¢$205+$5.49$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes23585¢82.5¢$194−$5.88$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?No24481.9¢78.5¢$192−$8.35$0
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?No97151.5¢0¢$0−$500−$17
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes48072.9¢0¢$0−$350−$3.78
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8?Yes35784¢0¢$0−$300−$3.36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 7?Yes32193.6¢0¢$0−$300−$1.35
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 October 5-11?No29967¢0¢$0−$200−$4.62
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6?Yes28071.4¢0¢$0−$200−$4.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ETDown23585¢0¢$0−$200−$2.10

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?63¢560$35376%43
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?91¢220$20076%43
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?81.9¢244$20076%43
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?61¢328$20076%43
BUY NoWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9?93.7¢267$25076%43
BUY YesWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8?84¢357$30076%43
BUY YesWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 7?93.6¢321$30076%43
BUY NoWill Ethereum dip to $2,600 October 5-11?67¢299$20076%43
BUY YesWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6?71.4¢280$20076%43
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?85¢235$20076%43
BUY NoNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?92¢326$30076%43
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?51.5¢971$50076%43
BUY NoWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in October?62.6¢479$30076%43
BUY NoWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in October?77.2¢595$46076%43
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?67.3¢743$50076%43
BUY DownBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET85¢118$10076%43
BUY DownBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET85¢118$10076%43
SELL YesWill at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?3.4¢20$0.6776%43
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?58¢307$17876%43
BUY NoWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 24?91.1¢176$16076%43