sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,745

BiDiFakePolls

0xd24…ef76@River_Whales
SharpWhalePnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$70.5kvol $1.59M
PnL 30d+$51.2kgains $47.5k · losses $2,383
PnL 7d+$23.9kwin rate 7d 92.2%
Win rate77.0%adj 75.2% · 30d 85.2%
Open value$99.2kcash n/a
Positions116 / 398open / all-time
Max drawdown−13.9%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$75.4kbelow peak −$870Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

82/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale69
Adjusted win rateraw 77.0% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable87
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No20.0k99.3¢99.8¢$19.9k+$90$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes25.0k61.1¢62.5¢$15.6k+$345$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes22.0k58¢63.5¢$13.9k+$1,215$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes13.2k62.9¢85.7¢$11.3k+$2,999+$4,324
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No12.0k69.3¢63.5¢$7,601−$695−$338
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes8,00071.9¢71.5¢$5,720−$30$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes8,57359.7¢62.5¢$5,358+$240$0
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No4,80085.8¢86.5¢$4,152+$33$0
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No3,30969.8¢72.5¢$2,399+$88$0
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes4,90157.8¢48.5¢$2,377−$458$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes2,30983.9¢79.5¢$1,836−$101−$59
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes2,42167.3¢67¢$1,621−$9.47$0
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes2,50955.4¢54.5¢$1,367−$23$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,00059¢62.5¢$1,250+$70$0
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes1,00071¢100¢$1,000+$290+$126
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No1,00080¢84.1¢$841+$41+$698
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes1,00077¢81.5¢$815+$45$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No1,00060¢61.5¢$615+$15$0
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes1,37945.7¢44.5¢$614−$17$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes51866.3¢57.5¢$298−$46−$534
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No20186¢87.5¢$176+$3.02$0
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes46532¢37.5¢$174+$26$0
Sweden snap election called in 2026?No16079¢85¢$136+$9.61$0
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?Yes2891¢89.5¢$25−$0.42$0
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?Yes1156¢59¢$6.23+$0.32$0
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes3,41818.2¢0.1¢$3.42−$618$0
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes2280¢2¢$0.44−$17−$6.01
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?No8,7347.5¢0¢$0−$655−$828
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Yes7,00029.3¢0¢$0−$2,050−$41
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Yes5,00544.4¢0¢$0−$2,225−$474
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes4,38021¢0¢$0−$920+$2,299
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?No4,3205.5¢0¢$0−$238−$0.37
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Yes3,51667.1¢0¢$0−$2,359−$310
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes3,16125.6¢0¢$0−$810−$43
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No3,00030.5¢0¢$0−$914−$224
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?Yes2,4981.1¢0¢$0−$29−$0.88
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Yes2,26322.9¢0¢$0−$518−$9.31
Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?No2,20568.6¢0¢$0−$1,513−$4.74
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Yes2,06129.3¢0¢$0−$604−$8.85
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No2,0371.4¢0¢$0−$28−$1.58
Will Georgia Tree win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?Yes2,00430.2¢0¢$0−$604−$7.69
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?No2,00024¢0¢$0−$480$0
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes2,0003.9¢0¢$0−$78−$739
Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?Yes1,83214.2¢0¢$0−$261−$2.88
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Yes1,80333¢0¢$0−$595−$73
Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?Under1,75134.5¢0¢$0−$604−$9.98
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,71015.9¢0¢$0−$271−$17
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No1,48229.9¢0¢$0−$443−$5.98
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?Yes1,42026.7¢0¢$0−$379$0
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No1,38482¢0¢$0−$1,135−$2.27
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Yes1,3554.5¢0¢$0−$61−$2.82
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?Yes1,30812.4¢0¢$0−$162$0
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?Over1,26045.5¢0¢$0−$572−$334
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1,01834¢0¢$0−$346−$315
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes1,0007.5¢0¢$0−$75−$13
Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?No1,0001.8¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes1,0002.3¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No99915.2¢0¢$0−$152$0
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Yes99452¢0¢$0−$517−$121
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Yes9867.2¢0¢$0−$71+$447
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No97036¢0¢$0−$349−$3.52
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Yes91210.5¢0¢$0−$96−$101
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?Yes9112.9¢0¢$0−$26−$0.52
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No8306.8¢0¢$0−$57−$8.33
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?No80020¢0¢$0−$160+$38
Will Diop Harris be the MI-04 Democratic nominee?Yes7952.8¢0¢$0−$22−$0.86
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Yes77515.6¢0¢$0−$121−$102
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Yes75741.2¢0¢$0−$312−$6.78
Will PJD win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Yes7513.5¢0¢$0−$27+$11
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?No73412¢0¢$0−$88$0
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?No70019¢0¢$0−$133−$36
Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes6153.8¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 7-10%?No56351.5¢0¢$0−$290+$2.11
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?Yes50519.6¢0¢$0−$99−$3.15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?No50072¢0¢$0−$360−$4.03
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?No50044¢0¢$0−$220−$4.93
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes50041.8¢0¢$0−$209$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win less than 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50010¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No50010¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?Yes50014¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes?Yes4428.6¢0¢$0−$38−$7.40
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Yes43817.1¢0¢$0−$75−$1.05
Will Left Party (V) win less than 5% of all valid votes?Yes4372.3¢0¢$0−$10−$0.34
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes4126.4¢0¢$0−$26−$0.77
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Yes40632.7¢0¢$0−$133−$3.57
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?Yes38476.3¢0¢$0−$293+$217
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?No37588¢0¢$0−$330−$38
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes34329.4¢0¢$0−$101−$672
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes31121.5¢0¢$0−$67−$2.10
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 10–15%?Yes24511¢0¢$0−$27+$0.47
Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 0-2%?Yes2214.1¢0¢$0−$8.96−$0.34
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No20048¢0¢$0−$96−$2.00
Will Nicoletti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Yes19571.8¢0¢$0−$140−$1.53
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Yes18710.2¢0¢$0−$19−$0.69
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?Yes18516¢0¢$0−$30−$1.08
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?No16064¢0¢$0−$102+$11
Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?Yes15513¢0¢$0−$20−$0.70
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?Under14943.9¢0¢$0−$65−$0.70
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes14817.7¢0¢$0−$26−$0.23
Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?Yes14033.1¢0¢$0−$46−$0.15

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?86¢201$17377%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?86¢500$43077%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?70¢809$56677%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?85¢2,000$1,70077%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?87¢100$8777%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?65¢2,000$1,30077%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?68¢1,000$68077%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?67.4¢1,000$67477%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?67.3¢1,421$95677%82Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?56¢1,000$56077%82Sharp
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?63¢4,000$2,52077%82Sharp
SELL YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?1.1¢20$0.2177%82Sharp
SELL YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?1.1¢171$1.8077%82Sharp
SELL YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?30¢200$6077%82Sharp
SELL YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?30¢500$15077%82Sharp
SELL YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?31¢10$3.1077%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?14¢100$1477%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?14¢100$1477%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Delegado Alessandro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?85.2¢125$10677%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Capitão Contar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?65¢128$8377%82Sharp