PnL all-time+$991vol $78.4k
PnL 30d+$15gains $0 · losses $128
PnL 7d+$1.93win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate53.8%adj 52.2% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions8 / 34open / all-time
Max drawdown−23.3%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 6h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$1,096below peak −$155Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
39/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale43
Adjusted win rateraw 53.8% · shrunk toward 50%31
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable51
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? · Noclosed+$552Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed+$236US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$234Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yesclosed+$150Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? · Noclosed+$120
Worst markets
US government shutdown Saturday? · Noclosed−$156Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed−$128Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? · Yesopen−$101Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? · Yesopen−$100Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yesopen−$51
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.40 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | −$0.20 | |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | −$0.20 | |
| Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | Yes | 865 | 11.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? | Yes | 274 | 36¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | −$1.90 | |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | Yes | 217 | 23¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | −$1.16 | |
| Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 137 | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.37 | |
| Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Yes | 122 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.30 |
Recent trades
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