Traders/Rank #5,138

thebloodangel

0xd59…5eee

PoliticsSportOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$2,000vol $758k

PnL 30d+$509gains $666 · losses $0

PnL 7d−$144win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate44.6%adj 45.2% · 30d 100.0%

Open value$6,631cash n/a

Positions75 / 223open / all-time

Max drawdown−94.0%of equity peak

Account age7molast trade 2mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,712below peak −$20.7kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

33/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47

Adjusted win rateraw 44.6% · shrunk toward 50%13

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity6

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Iran closes its airspace by June 30? · Yesclosed+$8,167 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$4,746 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$3,252 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,933 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Noclosed+$1,750

Worst markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Noopen−$7,300 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · Noopen−$3,208 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? · Noopen−$3,000 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? · Noopen−$2,600 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? · Noclosed−$1,487

Open positions · 75

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	2,979	34¢	41.5¢	$1,236	+$223	$0	21d 20h
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	1,500	69¢	82¢	$1,230	+$195	$0	3mo
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	1,813	36.2¢	55.5¢	$1,006	+$350	$0	15mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5,116	9.8¢	17.8¢	$908	+$408	$0	25mo
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	2,178	21.6¢	38¢	$828	+$358	$0	21d 20h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	1,832	57¢	38.5¢	$705	−$339	$0	21d 20h
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	291	69¢	98.6¢	$287	+$86	$0	20d 20h
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	4,683	10.7¢	3.8¢	$176	−$324	$0	3mo
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	306	13¢	50.5¢	$155	+$115	$0	4mo
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	1,301	16.9¢	3.5¢	$45	−$175	$0	3mo
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	57	36¢	51.4¢	$29	+$8.69	$0	4mo
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	611	43¢	4.3¢	$26	−$237	−$4.80	3mo
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	189k	0.5¢	0¢	$0	−$850	+$267	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	18.2k	40.2¢	0¢	$0	−$7,300	$0	ended
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	Yes	14.4k	2.8¢	0¢	$0	−$400	$0	ended
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	10.1k	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$20	$0	ended
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	10.0k	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$10	$0	ended
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	9,590	3.1¢	0¢	$0	−$297	−$3.00	ended
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	8,074	31.8¢	0¢	$0	−$2,566	−$34	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	8,036	3.7¢	0¢	$0	−$300	$0	17d 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?	No	5,214	57.5¢	0¢	$0	−$3,000	$0	ended
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	4,340	13.8¢	0¢	$0	−$600	−$26	ended
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	4,286	7¢	0¢	$0	−$300	$0	ended
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	2,000	51¢	0¢	$0	−$1,020	$0	ended
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	1,986	5¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$4.75	ended
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	1,809	70.8¢	0¢	$0	−$1,280	−$6.63	ended
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	1,807	23.8¢	0¢	$0	−$430	−$9.51	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	1,431	14¢	0¢	$0	−$200	$0	ended
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	1,379	8¢	0¢	$0	−$110	−$0.59	ended
James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	1,325	3.8¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	ended
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	Yes	1,263	45.1¢	0¢	$0	−$570	−$9.80	ended
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	1,073	18.6¢	0¢	$0	−$200	$0	ended
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	1,000	30¢	0¢	$0	−$300	$0	ended
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Yes	934	10.7¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$3.57	ended
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	900	28¢	0¢	$0	−$252	$0	ended
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	887	11.3¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$3.55	ended
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	No	874	45.8¢	0¢	$0	−$400	−$8.68	ended
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BNK FEARX	806	14.9¢	0¢	$0	−$120	−$2.46	ended
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	800	1.3¢	0¢	$0	−$10	$0	ended
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?	No	743	11¢	0¢	$0	−$82	$0	ended
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	No	700	15¢	0¢	$0	−$105	$0	ended
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	686	14.6¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner	EDward Gaming	594	32.8¢	0¢	$0	−$195	−$2.07	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	592	16.9¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	556	27¢	0¢	$0	−$150	$0	ended
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	500	20¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	500	2.2¢	0¢	$0	−$11	$0	ended
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	No	500	18¢	0¢	$0	−$90	−$0.64	ended
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Yes	500	13.8¢	0¢	$0	−$69	$0	3mo
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	447	22.4¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$3.11	ended
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	433	23.1¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	403	24.8¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$3.01	ended
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	400	5¢	0¢	$0	−$20	$0	ended
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	400	12¢	0¢	$0	−$48	$0	ended
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	400	7¢	0¢	$0	−$28	$0	ended
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	BNK FEARX	357	28¢	0¢	$0	−$100	−$2.16	ended
Will "I Love Boosters" score at least 93 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	341	23.4¢	0¢	$0	−$80	−$0.52	ended
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	No	307	16.3¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	ended
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	300	4¢	0¢	$0	−$12	$0	ended
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	286	35¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	250	8¢	0¢	$0	−$20	$0	ended
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	249	0.4¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	$0	ended
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	206	17¢	0¢	$0	−$35	$0	ended
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	179	38.6¢	0¢	$0	−$69	$0	ended
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	176	13¢	0¢	$0	−$23	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	170	58.8¢	0¢	$0	−$100	$0	ended
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	125	20¢	0¢	$0	−$25	$0	ended
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8?	Yes	104	3.3¢	0¢	$0	−$3.42	$0	ended
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?	Yes	100	57¢	0¢	$0	−$57	$0	ended
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	Yes	100	35¢	0¢	$0	−$35	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Alien Dot Gov" or "Aliens Dot Gov" in April?	Yes	100	13¢	0¢	$0	−$13	$0	ended
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	Yes	100	28.8¢	0¢	$0	−$29	$0	ended
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	70	43.1¢	0¢	$0	−$30	$0	15mo
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 27?	Yes	61	16.3¢	0¢	$0	−$10.00	$0	ended
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	13	40.1¢	0¢	$0	−$5.23	−$3,202	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
2mo ago	BUY No	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	57¢	1,832	$1,044	45%	33
2mo ago	BUY No	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	35¢	268	$94	45%	33
2mo ago	BUY No	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	34¢	2,979	$1,013	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	13¢	306	$40	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	36¢	52	$19	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	69¢	5	$3.63	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	68¢	144	$98	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	21.8¢	460	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	29.5¢	237	$70	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	10.7¢	934	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	70.6¢	566	$400	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	5¢	1,986	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	14.3¢	3,500	$500	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	11.9¢	840	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	11.3¢	887	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	22.4¢	447	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?	24.8¢	403	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	0.1¢	50.0k	$50	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	0.2¢	50.0k	$100	45%	33
3mo ago	BUY No	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	0.6¢	50.0k	$300	45%	33