sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,435

0xd64…480c

0xd64…480c
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$67.5kvol $758k
PnL 30d−$1,312gains $750 · losses $6.88
PnL 7d−$1,070win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate43.4%adj 43.6% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$6,529cash n/a
Positions64 / 682open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$67.1kbelow peak −$87.3kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

25/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 43.4% · shrunk toward 50%9
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 64

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes9,33242.7¢42¢$3,919−$67$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?No97689¢92.5¢$902+$34+$9.76
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No60089¢94¢$564+$30$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No1,37630¢32¢$440+$28+$21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?No38378¢68¢$261−$38$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?No56044¢36.5¢$204−$42+$9.60
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?No13654¢55¢$75+$1.36$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Yes31320.2¢20.5¢$64+$0.93+$2.89
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No12638¢39¢$49+$1.26+$23
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Yes6797¢6.5¢$44−$3.39$0
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No373.6¢91¢$2.96+$0.57−$2.35
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No362.8¢88.7¢$2.39+$0.70$0
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes321.1¢17.3¢$0.52−$0.11$0
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes330¢5¢$0.15−$0.77+$0.04
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Yes216¢4¢$0.09−$0.26−$0.12
Obama arrested before 2027?Yes49.7¢2.1¢$0.08−$0.29−$0.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No86.9k94.4¢0¢$0−$82.0k$0
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?No86.5k0.2¢0¢$0−$192$0
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No67.7k0.1¢0¢$0−$68$0
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?No31.4k0.1¢0¢$0−$31$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026?No24.1k0.1¢0¢$0−$24−$0.96
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?No11.2k3.1¢0¢$0−$341−$20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?No4,34610.2¢0¢$0−$443−$14
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?No3,80327.6¢0¢$0−$1,051$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes2,31717.6¢0¢$0−$407−$4.79
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?Yes2,0934.6¢0¢$0−$96$0
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No1,87864.4¢0¢$0−$1,209−$7.26
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?No1,6937.4¢0¢$0−$126−$0.87
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1,5535¢0¢$0−$78−$2.95
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?No1,39964.9¢0¢$0−$908−$13
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1,3748¢0¢$0−$110−$8.75
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?Yes1,3653.7¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?No1,3525¢0¢$0−$67−$7.46
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?No1,19039.6¢0¢$0−$471−$11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes1,1839¢0¢$0−$106−$3.87
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No88713¢0¢$0−$115−$4.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?No87080.9¢0¢$0−$704−$5.37
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes7167.8¢0¢$0−$56$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No6799¢0¢$0−$61−$2.52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?No53430¢0¢$0−$160−$4.48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?No49541¢0¢$0−$203$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No45650¢0¢$0−$228−$1.97
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?Up4041.9¢0¢$0−$7.87−$0.31
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?Up3173.9¢0¢$0−$12−$0.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes3095.7¢0¢$0−$18−$0.66
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No28067¢0¢$0−$187$0
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?Down27316.9¢0¢$0−$46−$1.53
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Yes2719¢0¢$0−$24−$0.89
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No22181¢0¢$0−$179$0
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?No21224.3¢0¢$0−$52$0
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?No20613.9¢0¢$0−$29−$0.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No19376.5¢0¢$0−$147+$0.41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Yes16050¢0¢$0−$80+$48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No15641.6¢0¢$0−$65+$5.17
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1500.8¢0¢$0−$1.20−$0.05
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?No13341¢0¢$0−$54−$1.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?No7461.4¢0¢$0−$46−$184
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?No6344¢0¢$0−$28+$15
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?Up5752¢0¢$0−$29−$26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No4562¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23?Yes4350¢0¢$0−$21−$0.32
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No3272¢0¢$0−$23−$0.53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes151.7¢0¢$0−$0.26−$0.01
Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?Yes437¢0¢$0−$1.41$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?11¢55$6.0243%25
SELL YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?12¢18$2.1943%25
SELL YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?12¢606$7343%25
SELL NoWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?96.7¢555$53743%25
SELL NoWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?94¢41$3943%25
SELL YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)21¢37$7.7443%25
SELL YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)21¢229$4843%25
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?59¢2,446$1,44343%25
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)22¢302$6643%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢15$4.8443%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢100$3243%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢364$11643%25
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?43¢3,316$1,42643%25
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?43¢3,358$1,44443%25
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?42¢1,646$69143%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢88$2843%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢100$3243%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢100$3243%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?39¢224$8743%25
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?32¢100$3243%25