PnL all-time+$2,412vol $878k
PnL 30d−$1,480gains $707 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$340win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate90.5%adj 86.2% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$8,380cash n/a
Positions5 / 174open / all-time
Max drawdown−77.7%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 6h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$768below peak −$2,568Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 90.5% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable75
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity22
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · Yesclosed+$1,012Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$435Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$329Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$255Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? · Yesclosed+$211
Worst markets
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,586Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yesopen−$1,315Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Noopen−$239Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$120Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? · Yesclosed−$90
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | No | 5,921 | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | $5,912 | +$2.96 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,797 | 36.5¢ | 34¢ | $1,631 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,811 | 27.5¢ | 9.5¢ | $837 | −$1,586 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | Yes | 1,551 | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$823 | −$493 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 253 | 94.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$239 | $0 |
Recent trades
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