sharpside
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0xd8c…105e

0xd8c…105e
WR 70+WR 60+<30d oldPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$51vol $9,802
PnL 30d+$77gains $84 · losses $54
PnL 7d+$55win rate 7d 88.9%
Win rate71.4%adj 63.6% · 30d 71.4%
Open value$1,226cash n/a
Positions25 / 60open / all-time
Max drawdown−3.5%of equity peak
Account age26dlast trade 42m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$70below peak $0Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

48/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale24
Adjusted win rateraw 71.4% · shrunk toward 50%59
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable59
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity97

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?No22088.8¢91.5¢$202+$6.06+$0.04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No14891.5¢99.3¢$147+$12+$20
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes15989.6¢91.6¢$145+$3.10$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes11498.2¢97.9¢$112−$0.31$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No9996¢96.7¢$95+$0.64$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No7994¢93.5¢$74−$0.39+$0.07
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No6295.3¢97.1¢$60+$1.08+$0.08
Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No6098.6¢97.4¢$58−$0.75$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No4898.3¢98¢$47−$0.19$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No4977.5¢82¢$40+$2.21$0
Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?No4193¢94.6¢$39+$0.65$0
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No4095.1¢96.2¢$38+$0.43+$0.01
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?No2992.5¢93¢$27+$0.14+$0.06
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?No2797.5¢97.2¢$26−$0.09$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No2188¢91.5¢$20+$0.75+$0.16
Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?No1997¢98.5¢$19+$0.29$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No1981¢87.5¢$16+$1.22−$0.30
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?No1594¢93¢$14−$0.15$0
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1283.1¢92¢$11+$1.10+$0.09
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?No1483¢73¢$10−$1.44$0
Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?No1091¢95.9¢$9.46+$0.48$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No1087¢89.5¢$8.82+$0.25$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No685¢92¢$5.76+$0.44+$0.04
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?No186.2¢97.1¢$1.41+$0.16+$0.04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Yes524¢22.5¢$1.14−$0.08$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?83.1¢12$1071%48
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?97.9¢49$4871%48
BUY NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?92.4¢17$1671%48
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?98.7¢30$2971%48
SELL NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?95¢1$0.8871%48
SELL NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?95¢0$0.3571%48
BUY YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?89.7¢81$7271%48
SELL NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?88¢1$0.7871%48
SELL NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?88¢2$2.1771%48
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?98¢15$1571%48
BUY YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?89.5¢78$7071%48
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?98.3¢2$2.2171%48
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?98.3¢190$18771%48
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?98.2¢32$3171%48
SELL NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?95¢0$0.1471%48
SELL NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?88¢1$0.4571%48
SELL NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?94¢0$0.1871%48
SELL NoWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?94¢2$1.6871%48
SELL NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?88¢3$2.4471%48
SELL NoWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?91¢0$0.1171%48