| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,240 | 88.4¢ | 97.2¢ | $1,205 | +$110 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026? | No | 596 | 88¢ | 97.7¢ | $582 | +$58 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | No | 500 | 89¢ | 98.6¢ | $493 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | No | 500 | 88¢ | 91¢ | $455 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 530 | 85¢ | 83.5¢ | $443 | −$7.95 | $0 | |
| Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? | No | 400 | 84¢ | 94.5¢ | $378 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 400 | 63¢ | 85¢ | $340 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 387 | 69¢ | 87.5¢ | $339 | +$72 | −$17 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 66.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $260 | +$60 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 550 | 58¢ | 45.5¢ | $250 | −$69 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? | No | 303 | 58¢ | 82.1¢ | $249 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 400 | 48¢ | 59.5¢ | $238 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 250 | 76¢ | 94.7¢ | $237 | +$47 | $0 | |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | Yes | 300 | 75¢ | 77.5¢ | $233 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 73¢ | 74.5¢ | $224 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31? | No | 250 | 86¢ | 85.1¢ | $213 | −$2.38 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 305 | 65¢ | 68.5¢ | $209 | +$11 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 250 | 78¢ | 81.5¢ | $204 | +$8.75 | +$65 | |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30? | No | 193 | 83¢ | 98.9¢ | $190 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 220 | 52¢ | 84¢ | $185 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | No | 200 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $184 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? | No | 200 | 86¢ | 85¢ | $170 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | No | 220 | 73.9¢ | 76.5¢ | $168 | +$5.70 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | No | 200 | 78¢ | 80.5¢ | $161 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 180 | 70¢ | 87.3¢ | $157 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 200 | 72¢ | 69.5¢ | $139 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 155 | 80¢ | 89.5¢ | $139 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | No | 200 | 54¢ | 66.5¢ | $133 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31? | Yes | 200 | 63¢ | 64¢ | $128 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 216 | 42.5¢ | 56.6¢ | $122 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | No | 119 | 68.5¢ | 99.8¢ | $119 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 41¢ | 76.5¢ | $115 | +$53 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 120 | 75¢ | 93.5¢ | $112 | +$22 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 150 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $110 | +$14 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 150 | 72¢ | 73¢ | $110 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 100 | 77¢ | 93.7¢ | $94 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 87¢ | 93.5¢ | $94 | +$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 100 | 84¢ | 80.5¢ | $81 | −$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 200 | 49¢ | 36.5¢ | $73 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | No | 100 | 71¢ | 70¢ | $70 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 130 | 60¢ | 53¢ | $69 | −$9.09 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? | No | 67 | 66¢ | 95.6¢ | $64 | +$20 | $0 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | No | 69 | 86¢ | 91.5¢ | $63 | +$3.80 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 160 | 62¢ | 37¢ | $59 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 286 | 46¢ | 20¢ | $57 | −$74 | $0 | |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | Yes | 312 | 17¢ | 17.5¢ | $55 | +$1.56 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026? | No | 152 | 32¢ | 24¢ | $37 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? | No | 34 | 94¢ | 97.5¢ | $33 | +$1.19 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | Yes | 200 | 28¢ | 13.5¢ | $27 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | 130 | 61.8¢ | 14.5¢ | $19 | −$62 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 200 | 67¢ | 7¢ | $14 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 17 | 88¢ | 75.8¢ | $13 | −$2.11 | −$61 | |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57 | 29.8¢ | 19.4¢ | $11 | −$6.01 | $0 | |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? | Yes | 186 | 46.5¢ | 5.9¢ | $11 | −$75 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 225 | 15.4¢ | 3.3¢ | $7.30 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 7¢ | 13.5¢ | $6.75 | +$3.25 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 10 | 73¢ | 66.5¢ | $6.65 | −$0.65 | $0 | |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 17 | 27¢ | 6.5¢ | $1.09 | −$3.44 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | No | 1,706 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 1,557 | 96.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,500 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.50 | −$0.37 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,190 | 84¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,000 | $0 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | No | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? | No | 743 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 520 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.12 | −$0.15 | |
| Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026? | Yes | 508 | 23¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$117 | $0 | |
| Will Régis Gaudreault win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? | Yes | 500 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | −$1.30 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | No | 498 | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$137 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | Yes | 450 | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$114 | −$4.24 | |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | No | 422 | 92.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$389 | $0 | |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 375 | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | −$0.91 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | Yes | 364 | 24.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$88 | −$3.27 | |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | Yes | 359 | 37.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$134 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | No | 337 | 31.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$107 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | No | 310 | 82¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$254 | $0 | |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? | No | 300 | 82¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$246 | $0 | |
| Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes? | Yes | 300 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$135 | −$2.97 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? | Yes | 289 | 71¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$205 | −$2.38 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | No | 262 | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$73 | +$247 | |
| Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | Yes | 260 | 69.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$181 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | 260 | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | Yes | 246 | 58¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$142 | −$45 | |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 152 | 24.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 150 | 85¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$128 | −$0.77 | |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 65¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$98 | −$1.36 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in August 2026? | Yes | 132 | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026? | Yes | 125 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.74 | $0 | |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | Yes | 120 | 91¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$109 | $0 | |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | No | 120 | 53¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$64 | −$1.20 | |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | No | 100 | 87¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$87 | −$14 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | No | 100 | 34.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 88.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$88 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | 76 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$61 | −$184 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | No | 58 | 75¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? | Yes | 40 | 43¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? | No | 39 | 44.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | −$0.39 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | No | 20 | 74¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.19 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | No | 15 | 56.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.36 | $0 | |
| Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? | Yes | 11 | 28¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.16 | −$0.09 | |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 8 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.20 | $0 | |