sharpside
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Traders/Rank #15,878

0xda4…2e5a

0xda4…2e5a
PoliticsSportWeatherOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$903vol $145k
PnL 30d+$110gains $27 · losses $162
PnL 7d+$67win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate57.4%adj 56.6% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$784cash n/a
Positions21 / 183open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 8d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$1,049below peak −$1,084Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 57.4% · shrunk toward 50%42
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable75
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d72
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 21

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?No13882.9¢93¢$128+$14$0
Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?No12184¢99.9¢$120+$19$0
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?No8874.9¢98.4¢$86+$20$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes10066¢72.5¢$73+$6.50$0
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?No8759.6¢80¢$69+$18+$2.44
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?Yes10077.7¢62.5¢$63−$15$0
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?No16141.5¢36¢$58−$8.89$0
Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?No5977¢82¢$49+$2.99$0
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Yes10018¢38.5¢$39+$21$0
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?No6053.8¢57¢$34+$1.94+$1.01
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes10029¢28.5¢$29−$0.50$0
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?Yes6331.8¢31¢$19−$0.49$0
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Yes2038¢43¢$8.73+$1.01$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Yes45570.6¢1.4¢$6.14−$315$0
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes1816.6¢15.7¢$2.75−$0.18$0
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Yes52.8¢7¢$0.35+$0.21$0
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes1002.3¢0.1¢$0.10−$2.20$0
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Yes60547.6¢0¢$0−$288+$75
Critical Discord Incident by June 30?Yes17310¢0¢$0−$17+$6.63
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?Yes16714.6¢0¢$0−$24+$26
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes3242.8¢0¢$0−$14−$0.39

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?85¢20$1757%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?84¢20$1757%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?83¢18$1557%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?84¢20$1757%33
BUY YesWill Claude go down 11-13 times in October?12¢28$3.3657%33
BUY YesWill Claude go down 11-13 times in October?12¢40$4.8057%33
BUY YesWill there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?15¢8$1.1457%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down 5-7 times in October?41¢20$8.2057%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down 5-7 times in October?54¢20$1157%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down 5-7 times in October?59¢20$1257%33
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?74¢20$1557%33
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?74¢7$4.8157%33
BUY YesWill there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?20¢20$4.0057%33
BUY NoWill there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?80¢20$1657%33
BUY YesWill there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?21¢20$4.2057%33
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?76¢41$3157%33
BUY YesWill there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?20¢20$4.0057%33
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?74¢20$1557%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?82¢20$1657%33
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?81¢40$3257%33