PnL all-time−$292vol $5,695
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate50.0%adj 50.0% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$211cash n/a
Positions6 / 18open / all-time
Max drawdown−47.8%of equity peak
Account age1.8ylast trade 8mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$292below peak −$354Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
13/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 50.0% · shrunk toward 50%25
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable42
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity52
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US government shutdown Saturday? · Yesopen+$103Ripple ETF approved by July 31? · Noclosed+$94Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$55Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Yesclosed+$44Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$20
Worst markets
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yesclosed−$298Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? · Yesopen−$100Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? · Yesclosed−$89Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed−$69Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? · Yesopen−$33
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 134 | 23¢ | 100¢ | $134 | +$103 | $0 | |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 78 | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | $78 | +$9.85 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | Yes | 220 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Yes | 179 | 56¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? | Yes | 52 | 63.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? | No | 22 | 31¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.90 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s