sharpside
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Polymarket
PnL all-time−$256vol $281k
PnL 30d+$74gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$43win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate57.0%adj 56.4% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$5,255cash n/a
Positions40 / 289open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 5mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$112below peak −$2,275Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 57.0% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 40

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Anduril IPO before 2027?No1,93283¢97.6¢$1,886+$282$0
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No70489¢100¢$704+$77$0
Obras vs. San LorenzoObras65027¢100¢$650+$475$0
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals1,09051¢50¢$545−$11$0
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026No57088¢81.5¢$465−$37$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic38660¢95.3¢$368+$136$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes32070¢100¢$320+$96−$14
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No31299.9¢100¢$312+$0.31$0
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?Yes389¢97.2¢$2.91+$0.24−$0.16
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?No284¢96¢$2.37+$0.30$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes1575¢4.9¢$0.73−$11−$12
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Yes219¢6¢$0.12−$0.26−$7.16
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Under2,18519¢0¢$0−$415$0
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois PanthersBlackburn Beavers1,35620.2¢0¢$0−$274$0
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 27 be less than 2,100,000?No1,22510¢0¢$0−$123$0
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)No97943¢0¢$0−$421$0
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders95716.1¢0¢$0−$154$0
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)No86314¢0¢$0−$121$0
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern JaguarsMississippi Valley State Delta Devils71634¢0¢$0−$243$0
Will "Gachiakuta" win Best Animation at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Yes63221¢0¢$0−$133−$4.72
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville AcesEvansville Aces62976¢0¢$0−$478$0
Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes62124¢0¢$0−$149$0
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026?Yes60016¢0¢$0−$96−$29
Will Trump post "Claude" or "Anthropic" on Truth Social this week?Yes56714.6¢0¢$0−$83$0
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs METANOIAGG (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group AMETANOIAGG55748.9¢0¢$0−$272$0
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ETDown52011.6¢0¢$0−$60$0
Ethereum ETF Flows on February 17?Negative51170¢0¢$0−$358$0
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over38056¢0¢$0−$213$0
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be greater than 2,300,000?No30760¢0¢$0−$184$0
Will Trump post "IRGC" or "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" on Truth Social this week?Yes30317.1¢0¢$0−$52+$19
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 11PM ETUp17249¢0¢$0−$84$0
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win 150 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No11964¢0¢$0−$76$0
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over10082¢0¢$0−$82$0
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 10PM ETUp5148¢0¢$0−$24$0
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?Yes3722¢0¢$0−$8.14+$0.72
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Yes2023¢0¢$0−$4.60+$10
San Diego Toreros vs. Pepperdine WavesPepperdine Waves1989¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?Yes21¢0¢$0−$0.02$0
Will Trump say "Biden" first during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes21.4¢0¢$0−$0.03+$12
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes185¢0¢$0−$0.85$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY UnderManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.519¢2,185$41557%27
SELL NoWill "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?26¢887$23157%27
SELL NoWill Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?68¢492$33557%27
SELL NoWill Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?68¢572$38957%27
SELL NoWill Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?68¢45$3157%27
SELL NoWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?51¢266$13657%27
BUY NoWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?50¢266$13357%27
BUY NoWill Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?70¢1,109$77657%27
BUY NoWill "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?68¢887$60357%27
SELL YesWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?19¢22$4.1857%27
SELL YesWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?19¢30$5.7057%27
SELL YesWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?19¢30$5.7057%27
SELL NoMilitary action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?6¢105$6.3057%27
SELL YesIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?68¢593$40357%27
SELL NoWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?40¢561$22457%27
SELL NoWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?40¢44$1857%27
BUY NoWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?46¢605$27857%27
BUY NoWill Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 202688¢570$50257%27
BUY NoMilitary action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?83¢105$8757%27
BUY NoWill there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?89¢704$62757%27