| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 13.8k | 31.5¢ | 19¢ | $2,614 | −$1,713 | −$461 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 1,642 | 38.3¢ | 70¢ | $1,149 | +$521 | +$102 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,128 | 87.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $1,095 | +$103 | +$54 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 737 | 49.8¢ | 68.5¢ | $505 | +$138 | +$17 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,102 | 32¢ | 43.9¢ | $484 | +$131 | $0 | |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 17.4¢ | 3.5¢ | $435 | −$1,734 | −$46 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,655 | 14¢ | 14.5¢ | $385 | +$13 | +$55 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | No | 344 | 58.4¢ | 91.5¢ | $315 | +$114 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,061 | 30.7¢ | 14.5¢ | $299 | −$335 | −$13 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 9,656 | 3.5¢ | 2.6¢ | $251 | −$91 | +$168 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 262 | 75.9¢ | 85¢ | $223 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 216 | 46.9¢ | 86.6¢ | $187 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 833 | 31.1¢ | 21¢ | $175 | −$84 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 1,398 | 45.3¢ | 11¢ | $154 | −$480 | +$87 | |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Yes | 3,308 | 38.8¢ | 4.5¢ | $149 | −$1,134 | −$56 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 519 | 25¢ | 24¢ | $125 | −$5.35 | $0 | |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 270 | 52.2¢ | 45.5¢ | $123 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 421 | 19¢ | 23.5¢ | $99 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 175 | 47¢ | 51.5¢ | $90 | +$7.88 | $0 | |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 445 | 17.2¢ | 18¢ | $80 | +$3.41 | −$126 | |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 48.6¢ | 14.5¢ | $73 | −$171 | +$0.51 | |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 579 | 28.9¢ | 11¢ | $64 | −$103 | −$50 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 223 | 18.3¢ | 25.5¢ | $57 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 341 | 35¢ | 11.5¢ | $39 | −$80 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 110 | 11.4¢ | 35.3¢ | $39 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 243 | 19.1¢ | 13.4¢ | $32 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 530 | 7¢ | 6¢ | $32 | −$5.30 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 169 | 6.7¢ | 17.1¢ | $29 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 22.6¢ | 4¢ | $24 | −$112 | −$0.92 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 165 | 9¢ | 13.5¢ | $22 | +$7.42 | $0 | |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 261 | 13¢ | 8.5¢ | $22 | −$12 | −$8.06 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 21 | 88.2¢ | 94.4¢ | $20 | +$1.28 | +$8.54 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 19 | 92.9¢ | 96.2¢ | $19 | +$0.64 | +$18 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 15 | 69.5¢ | 91¢ | $14 | +$3.31 | +$10 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 94 | 12.5¢ | 13.5¢ | $13 | +$0.90 | −$11 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 12¢ | $12 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat? | Yes | 411 | 4.7¢ | 2.9¢ | $12 | −$7.60 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 69 | 7.2¢ | 16.5¢ | $11 | +$6.40 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 57 | 1.3¢ | 16.9¢ | $9.63 | +$8.90 | $0 | |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 110 | 11.6¢ | 6¢ | $6.60 | −$6.20 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat? | Yes | 116 | 2.2¢ | 4.3¢ | $5.00 | +$2.43 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 45 | 3.9¢ | 8.5¢ | $3.82 | +$2.06 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 16.2¢ | 16.8¢ | $3.36 | +$0.12 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat? | Yes | 100 | 0.6¢ | 3.1¢ | $3.09 | +$2.49 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 50 | 3.6¢ | 5.7¢ | $2.83 | +$1.04 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat? | Yes | 70 | 2.9¢ | 3.2¢ | $2.21 | +$0.17 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 34 | 2.8¢ | 4¢ | $1.34 | +$0.39 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat? | Yes | 300 | 0.4¢ | 0.3¢ | $0.90 | −$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 83 | 0.6¢ | 0.7¢ | $0.58 | +$0.08 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 70 | 0.6¢ | 0.8¢ | $0.52 | +$0.10 | −$3.21 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 10 | 18¢ | 5.1¢ | $0.51 | −$1.30 | +$9.01 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | Yes | 73 | 2.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.40 | −$1.31 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | Yes | 33.9k | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,216 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | Yes | 31.3k | 24.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,614 | +$191 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | Yes | 28.4k | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$849 | +$0.22 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | Yes | 24.0k | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$853 | −$9.31 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | Yes | 20.0k | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,333 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | Yes | 18.6k | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,025 | −$11 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | Yes | 15.0k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$593 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | Yes | 15.0k | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,960 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | 15.0k | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,245 | −$737 | |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.3k | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,481 | −$16 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.7k | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,107 | +$119 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | 12.3k | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,524 | −$2,644 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 10.5k | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$937 | +$60 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 9,896 | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$471 | −$0.02 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | 7,286 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$416 | +$80 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | Yes | 5,876 | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,363 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | No | 5,265 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$203 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | Yes | 5,181 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$363 | +$744 | |
| Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 4,728 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.72 | −$0.19 | |
| Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$202 | $0 | |
| Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 3,831 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.83 | −$0.15 | |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | No | 3,557 | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$301 | +$3.18 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 3,343 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70 | −$2.75 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,647 | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$334 | +$4.70 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 2,584 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$34 | −$1.13 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | Yes | 2,510 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$126 | +$28 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 2,473 | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$471 | −$15 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | No | 2,418 | 22.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$547 | +$131 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? | Yes | 2,036 | 20¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$407 | +$75 | |
| Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,917 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.91 | −$0.08 | |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | Yes | 1,885 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$283 | −$59 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | Yes | 1,847 | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$140 | +$2.85 | |
| US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? | Yes | 1,846 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | +$8.46 | |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,644 | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$328 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,585 | 26.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$422 | +$55 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,547 | 4.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$63 | −$2.42 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,525 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.80 | −$0.15 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 1,290 | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$179 | −$6.68 | |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1,145 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | −$0.90 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,107 | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$309 | −$4.01 | |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,100 | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$208 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,059 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.06 | −$0.04 | |
| LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch? | No | 1,056 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$41 | −$2.77 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,017 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.50 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70 | −$103 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 971 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.72 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | Yes | 920 | 27.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$249 | +$272 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | Yes | 741 | 24.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$184 | −$3.98 | |