PnL all-time+$162kvol $2.18M
PnL 30d−$0.01gains $538 · losses $1,921
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate65.8%adj 63.4% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions7 / 122open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.8%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 2mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$164kbelow peak −$2,838Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale74
Adjusted win rateraw 65.8% · shrunk toward 50%59
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable70
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$64.4kRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$29.3kMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$19.7kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$13.6kRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$10.5k
Worst markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Noclosed−$14.9kMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,897Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yesopen−$4,350Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Noclosed−$4,136Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yesclosed−$3,343
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 50.1k | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$400 | −$20 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 24.0k | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,161 | +$41 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 15.0k | 29¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,350 | $0 | |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? | No | 3,315 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$152 | −$2.90 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$255 | $0 | |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | No | 1,167 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.98 | |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 78 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$53 | −$0.68 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s