sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,025

Watchful-Fund

0xdc8…bcd2
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$6,604vol $555k
PnL 30d−$110gains $544 · losses $592
PnL 7d−$190win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate56.6%adj 55.8% · 30d 62.5%
Open value$13.8kcash n/a
Positions25 / 165open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 7h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,991below peak −$1,085Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

47/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale55
Adjusted win rateraw 56.6% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,658US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,134Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,792US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,705 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Noclosed+$1,331

Worst markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$3,078US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,163Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,227US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · Noclosed−$1,166MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,113

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No6,16794.2¢94.5¢$5,828+$16$0
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No2,00794.3¢97.5¢$1,955+$62$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No1,12350.3¢80¢$898+$334$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No90092.9¢98.2¢$884+$48$0
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?No83896¢97.3¢$815+$10$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes76486.4¢88.5¢$676+$16−$44
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Yes63491¢90.5¢$573−$3.17$0
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?No71979.9¢69.5¢$500−$75−$106
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes44454.6¢80.5¢$358+$115−$3.66
Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?No33980.6¢92.6¢$314+$41$0
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes48257.9¢47.5¢$229−$50−$26
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Yes20375.5¢86.5¢$176+$22$0
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes41645¢30.5¢$127−$60$0
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?No13692¢91.1¢$124−$1.27$0
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Yes95855.5¢12.5¢$120−$412−$392
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes40029.5¢28.5¢$114−$4.00$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes10076¢20¢$20−$56$0
Astra removed from public access by October 31?No2093¢97¢$19+$0.79$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes8428¢23¢$19−$4.20$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?No1,2520.2¢0.8¢$9.39+$6.89$0
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?Yes10614¢6¢$6.37−$8.50$0
Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Yes8212¢0.4¢$0.29−$9.55$0
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?No15049.9¢0¢$0−$75−$1.50
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes10560.6¢0¢$0−$63−$0.80
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?No2210¢0¢$0−$2.20−$0.08

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?97.5¢1,159$1,13157%47
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?91¢634$57757%47
BUY NoWill AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?98.6¢5$5.0357%47
SELL YesWill AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?0.9¢1,336$1357%47
BUY YesAny of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?29¢200$5857%47
BUY YesAny of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?30¢200$6057%47
BUY NoWill GameStop acquire eBay?95¢1,447$1,37557%47
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?70¢106$7457%47
BUY NoWill no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?59¢127$7557%47
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?90¢500$45057%47
BUY NoWill GameStop acquire eBay?94¢1,220$1,14757%47
SELL YesWill AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?20¢319$6457%47
SELL NoWill no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?60¢410$24657%47
BUY NoWill GameStop acquire eBay?94¢3,500$3,29057%47
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?83¢518$43057%47
BUY NoClavicular charges dropped by October 31?80.6¢339$27457%47
BUY NoWill Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?0.2¢1,252$2.5057%47
BUY NoWill Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?10¢22$2.2057%47
BUY NoWill the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?92¢136$12557%47
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?28¢84$2457%47