sharpside
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Traders/Rank #7,043

jkerkela

0xde1…7ca8
WR 60+<30d oldPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$255vol $19.5k
PnL 30d+$729gains $1,520 · losses $1,259
PnL 7d+$605win rate 7d 69.6%
Win rate63.0%adj 61.2% · 30d 63.0%
Open value$4,464cash n/a
Positions29 / 148open / all-time
Max drawdown0%of equity peak
Account age19dlast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

Not enough history to draw an equity curve.

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale34
Adjusted win rateraw 63.0% · shrunk toward 50%53
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable72
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$149Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? · Noclosed+$118US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yesopen+$89Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? · Noclosed+$87Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28? · Yesclosed+$86

Worst markets

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$452Will Trump say "Liar" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Noclosed−$82Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$70Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026? · Noopen−$67Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yesclosed−$63

Open positions · 28

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes77282.5¢93.8¢$724+$87+$1.72
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?No2,54921.5¢24.5¢$625+$76$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?No50467.8¢97.3¢$491+$149$0
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Yes34077¢99.9¢$339+$78$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?Yes30775¢89¢$273+$43$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes23487.8¢92.1¢$216+$10$0
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes21684¢90.6¢$196+$14$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?No34074.1¢54.5¢$185−$67$0
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?Yes33145.8¢53.5¢$177+$25$0
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?No18793.6¢92.9¢$174−$1.40$0
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?Yes1,4097.6¢10.1¢$142+$34$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes30042¢46.7¢$140+$14$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes35046.7¢31.5¢$110−$53$0
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?No10293.5¢97.7¢$100+$4.28$0
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?No15060.7¢62.5¢$94+$2.75$0
Will Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?Yes14065.4¢64.5¢$90−$1.30$0
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?No12039¢56.5¢$68+$21$0
Will Trump say "Made in America" or "American Made" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?Yes6772¢85.5¢$57+$9.04$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes20026.5¢28.1¢$56+$3.10$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Yes8727¢49¢$42+$19$0
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?No3053¢99.6¢$30+$14$0
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes10030¢29.5¢$30−$0.50$0
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Yes2891.7¢99.1¢$28+$2.06$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Yes2682¢98.4¢$26+$4.25$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Yes1964.7¢91¢$17+$5.00$0
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Yes1577¢99.3¢$15+$3.34$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?Yes1568¢75¢$11+$1.05$0
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Yes10011¢10.3¢$10−$0.75$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL Team LiquidLoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage24¢100$2463%66
BUY Team LiquidLoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage48.2¢100$4863%66
BUY NoWill Trump say "Beautiful" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?64¢30$1963%66
BUY YesWill Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?18¢30$5.4063%66
BUY NoWill Trump say "Brazil" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?77¢40$3163%66
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?91.2¢16$1563%66
BUY NoWill Trump say "Beautiful" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?61¢100$6163%66
BUY YesWill Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?66¢100$6663%66
BUY YesWill CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?91.7¢28$2663%66
BUY NoWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?57¢160$9163%66
BUY YesWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?34¢206$7063%66
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?90.7¢270$24563%66
BUY YesWill Trump say "Made in America" or "American Made" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?72¢67$4863%66
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?87.8¢234$20563%66
BUY NoWill Trump say "Beautiful" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?60¢50$3063%66
BUY YesWill Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?64¢40$2663%66
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?78.1¢474$37063%66
SELL Karmine CorpLoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner46.9¢100$4763%66
BUY Karmine CorpLoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner31¢100$3163%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?35¢100$3563%66