PnL all-time−$21.1kvol $653k
PnL 30d−$978gains $966 · losses $6,285
PnL 7d−$716win rate 7d 20.0%
Win rate56.5%adj 54.5% · 30d 54.8%
Open value$1,275cash n/a
Positions9 / 57open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 11h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$20.6kbelow peak −$22.5kOct 15
SharpScore inputs
24/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.5% · shrunk toward 50%36
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable59
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$541US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? · Noclosed+$298Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yesclosed+$140Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · Noclosed+$137US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$104
Worst markets
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Noopen−$9,376Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$5,002US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$3,652Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$1,933US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,172
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? | Yes | 894 | 93¢ | 93.8¢ | $839 | +$7.15 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 1,150 | 20¢ | 12.5¢ | $144 | −$86 | −$13 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.0k | 2.9¢ | 0.9¢ | $136 | −$326 | −$846 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 9¢ | 6.5¢ | $65 | −$25 | −$43 | |
| Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31? | Yes | 282 | 18.3¢ | 22.5¢ | $63 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | No | 600 | 5¢ | 4.6¢ | $28 | −$2.40 | $0 |
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