sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

MispricedPaladin

0xde8…144c
WR 60+1y+PoliticsCryptoSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$907vol $139k
PnL 30d−$769gains $376 · losses $57
PnL 7d−$39win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate60.5%adj 59.4% · 30d 44.4%
Open value$4,718cash n/a
Positions102 / 279open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$962below peak −$2,423Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

37/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 60.5% · shrunk toward 50%49
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes1,03991¢91.5¢$950+$5.19$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No85357.5¢61.5¢$524+$34$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes65053.2¢61.5¢$400+$54$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes47467.3¢72.5¢$344+$25+$22
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes69758¢46.5¢$324−$80−$1.30
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No50050.3¢62.5¢$313+$61$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No30681.7¢90.5¢$277+$27$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes35058.3¢58.5¢$205+$0.75$0
Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?Yes33955¢56.5¢$192+$5.22$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes30051¢62.5¢$188+$35$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes25060.6¢69.5¢$174+$22$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes20076¢80.5¢$161+$9.00$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?No28432¢36.5¢$104+$13$0
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes30033¢28.5¢$86−$14+$12
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?Yes18946¢41¢$77−$9.45$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes30033.3¢21¢$63−$37$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes25915.9¢24¢$62+$21$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes16020¢26¢$42+$9.60$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes20015¢16.5¢$33+$3.00$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No10044¢32.5¢$33−$12$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes10046¢28.5¢$29−$18$0
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes4007¢6.5¢$26−$2.00$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes20013¢12.5¢$25−$1.00$0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?Yes3656.5¢6.2¢$22−$1.28$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?Yes27916¢7¢$20−$25$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes28015¢5.1¢$14−$28$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes3443¢32.5¢$11−$3.56$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes7511¢12¢$9.00+$0.75$0
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?No927.6¢6.9¢$6.30−$0.69$0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?Yes5911.7¢9¢$5.29−$1.56$0
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes630¢36.5¢$2.10+$0.37$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes112.1¢13.5¢$0.15+$0.02−$3.71
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Yes1,17935.4¢0¢$0−$418−$5.66
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Yes9300.5¢0¢$0−$4.54−$0.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No89662.1¢0¢$0−$557$0
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes62430.2¢0¢$0−$189$0
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes51813¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes47221¢0¢$0−$99−$3.13
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes47029¢0¢$0−$136−$3.34
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes41974.6¢0¢$0−$313−$0.56
Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes41313.3¢0¢$0−$55−$1.91
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?Yes40010¢0¢$0−$40−$1.08
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes4004.3¢0¢$0−$17$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes31337.5¢0¢$0−$117+$0.73
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England?Yes3003.5¢0¢$0−$10−$0.51
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?Yes26131.5¢0¢$0−$82−$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ETDown2504¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.67
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Yes24827¢0¢$0−$67+$13
Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes2443¢0¢$0−$7.39−$0.29
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?No23884¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Yes23447¢0¢$0−$110−$2.33
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?Yes2245.4¢0¢$0−$12−$0.34
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No21178¢0¢$0−$165$0
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes20224.7¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?No20015¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes1977.6¢0¢$0−$15−$50
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?No18727¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?Yes17951.9¢0¢$0−$93+$18
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Yes16619.6¢0¢$0−$33$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETDown15722.4¢0¢$0−$35−$1.74
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreNo15664¢0¢$0−$100−$1.08
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?Yes13611¢0¢$0−$15−$0.40
Will Ralph Norman win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?Yes11225¢0¢$0−$28−$0.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETUp11027.2¢0¢$0−$30−$1.53
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?Yes1100.9¢0¢$0−$0.99$0
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt?Yes10519¢0¢$0−$20−$0.49
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Yes10239.1¢0¢$0−$40−$0.97
Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1005.1¢0¢$0−$5.10$0
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Yes10050¢0¢$0−$50−$1.00
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?No10034¢0¢$0−$34+$9.98
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)Czechia9626¢0¢$0−$25−$0.56
Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Yes9115¢0¢$0−$14−$0.10
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETUp8956.1¢0¢$0−$50−$1.37
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?Yes888¢0¢$0−$7.00−$0.19
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?Yes8025¢0¢$0−$20−$0.45
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?Yes8025¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 1?Yes8021¢0¢$0−$17$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ETUp8018.8¢0¢$0−$15−$0.83
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ETDown7825.6¢0¢$0−$20−$0.98
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETUp7533.5¢0¢$0−$25−$1.03
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETUp717¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.33
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Switzerland6760¢0¢$0−$40−$0.48
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Scotland6439¢0¢$0−$25−$0.46
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Brazil6332¢0¢$0−$20−$0.41
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 31?Yes605¢0¢$0−$3.00$0
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 1?Yes6017¢0¢$0−$10$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETUp5744¢0¢$0−$25−$0.98
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ETUp5744¢0¢$0−$25−$0.98
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETUp5248¢0¢$0−$25−$0.91
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ETDown5258.1¢0¢$0−$30−$0.88
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?Yes5018¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Yes5030.7¢0¢$0−$15$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETDown4533¢0¢$0−$15−$0.64
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 1?Yes4525¢0¢$0−$11$0
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand?Yes3918¢0¢$0−$7.00−$0.17
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 1?Yes3818¢0¢$0−$6.91$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ETUp2935.1¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.45
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreNo1953¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.23
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 1?Yes618¢0¢$0−$1.08$0
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?Yes514¢0¢$0−$0.70$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?7¢400$2861%37
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?72¢69$5061%37
BUY YesWill Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?25.2¢190$4861%37
BUY YesWill Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?25.1¢41$1061%37
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?7.6¢92$6.9961%37
BUY YesWill Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?56¢102$5761%37
BUY YesWill Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?53¢58$3061%37
SELL YesWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?51¢13$6.5561%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?34¢100$3461%37
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?46¢189$8761%37
SELL YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?22.1¢219$4861%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?55¢200$11061%37
BUY YesWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?67¢348$23361%37
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?36¢20$7.2061%37
BUY YesWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?33¢300$9961%37
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?52¢39$2061%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?52¢120$6261%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?52¢130$6861%37
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?52¢210$10961%37
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?50¢200$10061%37