PnL all-time−$248vol $11.5k
PnL 30d−$5.00gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate60.0%adj 53.3% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$282cash n/a
Positions8 / 18open / all-time
Max drawdown−52.5%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 7mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$294below peak −$445Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
14/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 60.0% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable42
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity48
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$119Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? · Noclosed+$110Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yesclosed+$88Nothing Ever Happens: January · Noclosed+$40Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? · Noclosed+$14
Worst markets
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? | No | 276 | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | $276 | +$9.03 | $0 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 200 | 26¢ | 3¢ | $6.00 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | Yes | 2,000 | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70 | $0 | |
| GPT ads by January 31? | Yes | 334 | 42¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$140 | $0 | |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 46.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3PM ET | Up | 200 | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3PM ET | Down | 100 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | $0 |
Recent trades
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