sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,782

variant1.meta

0xdf5…deb0
PoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$5,786vol $455k
PnL 30d+$4,093gains $5,113 · losses $1,100
PnL 7d+$1,070win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate55.3%adj 55.1% · 30d 78.8%
Open value$12.7kcash n/a
Positions47 / 547open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.2%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,997below peak −$193Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

64/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 55.3% · shrunk toward 50%38
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d93
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity79

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,521Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$945Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Noclosed+$664Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$543Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$528

Worst markets

Iran closes its airspace by June 15? · Noclosed−$825Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$610Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? · Noopen−$550Israel closes its airspace by June 30? · Yesclosed−$409Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? · Yesclosed−$401

Open positions · 47

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No1,18378¢77.5¢$917−$5.91$0
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?No1,04577.3¢85.7¢$895+$87+$3.15
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No1,01174.5¢87.5¢$884+$132$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No94947.1¢85.5¢$811+$364+$82
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No1,02580.5¢78.5¢$804−$20$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No74983¢89.5¢$671+$49+$58
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes1,65736.4¢37.5¢$621+$18$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?No64776.4¢84¢$543+$49$0
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No63086.4¢83.5¢$526−$18$0
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No49680.5¢91.5¢$454+$54+$64
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No50786¢88.5¢$449+$13$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No1,38022¢27.5¢$380+$76$0
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?No41278.7¢89¢$367+$42+$4.05
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes94431.3¢35.5¢$335+$39$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes3,1968.7¢9.5¢$304+$24$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?No1,48614.6¢20.1¢$299+$82$0
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?No1,19435.5¢24.5¢$293−$132−$0.73
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?No3,6107.3¢8¢$289+$26+$179
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?No50048.9¢54.5¢$273+$28$0
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes1,30722.5¢19.6¢$256−$39$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No1,67612.2¢12.5¢$209+$5.85$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?No1,92010¢10.5¢$202+$9.60$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No3,2467¢6.2¢$200−$28$0
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes81920¢22.5¢$184+$20$0
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes94322¢18.5¢$174−$33$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No55041.7¢28.4¢$156−$73$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No28958¢51.5¢$149−$19$0
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No32645¢45.5¢$148+$1.63$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?No15080.8¢87¢$131+$9.38+$39
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?No29940.4¢40.3¢$120−$0.55$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No17856.7¢58.5¢$104+$3.16+$18
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes50032.7¢19.5¢$97−$66$0
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?No16245.8¢59.5¢$96+$22+$32
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?No30322¢29.5¢$89+$23$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes1,30012¢5.2¢$68−$88$0
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No16042.3¢31.9¢$51−$17$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?No49013¢9.5¢$47−$17$0
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes45013¢8.5¢$38−$20$0
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Yes15019¢23¢$35+$6.00$0
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?Yes19516.1¢12.5¢$24−$6.92$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes18013¢8.5¢$15−$8.08$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes2,6104.2¢0.5¢$12−$98+$117
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?No5,0941.9¢0¢$0−$97−$2.43
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?No1,57334.7¢0¢$0−$545−$4.68
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?No76926¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?No56511.2¢0¢$0−$63−$2.08
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Yes21561¢0¢$0−$131+$449

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?8¢901$7255%64
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?6¢239$1455%64
SELL NoWill David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?70¢570$39955%64
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?10¢525$5355%64
BUY NoWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?22¢303$6755%64
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?45¢326$14755%64
BUY YesWill DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?22¢943$20755%64
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?14.6¢1,486$21755%64
BUY YesWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?22.4¢1,058$23755%64
SELL NoWill Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?91¢165$15055%64
BUY YesWill the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?41¢114$4755%64
SELL NoNetanyahu out by end of 2026?62¢1,000$62055%64
BUY NoWill Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?42.3¢160$6855%64
BUY YesWill Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?20¢819$16455%64
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?76.4¢647$49455%64
BUY NoWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?40.4¢299$12155%64
SELL YesWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?26.5¢461$12255%64
SELL NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?31¢0$0.1155%64
SELL NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?30.8¢432$13355%64
SELL NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?33.6¢433$14555%64