sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

delta-fox

0xdf8…70f1
WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$800vol $58.2k
PnL 30d−$231gains $169 · losses $39
PnL 7d−$99win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate69.7%adj 66.7% · 30d 84.6%
Open value$3,760cash n/a
Positions41 / 150open / all-time
Max drawdown−45.1%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$541below peak −$448Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale41
Adjusted win rateraw 69.7% · shrunk toward 50%67
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable73
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity55

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Yesclosed+$339Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$162US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$133Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? · Yesclosed+$120US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? · Noclosed+$81

Worst markets

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yesclosed−$153US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Noopen−$113Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$110Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? · Yesopen−$97Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$89

Open positions · 41

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,54565.3¢63.5¢$981−$27$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No1,03888.4¢90.5¢$940+$22$0
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No74887.2¢86.5¢$647−$5.12$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No71543.3¢42.5¢$304−$6.00$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No1,00434.5¢23.5¢$236−$111−$2.35
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes27989.1¢79.5¢$221−$27$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes72227.3¢14.9¢$108−$89$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No40816.6¢19.5¢$80+$12$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes17049.9¢37.5¢$64−$21+$2.14
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No10463¢58¢$60−$5.19$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Yes3995¢93.5¢$36−$0.58$0
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No4276¢73.5¢$31−$1.04$0
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes4136.6¢35.5¢$14−$0.43$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No4860.2¢28.1¢$14−$16−$6.43
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1263¢86.5¢$10+$2.74$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes3248.3¢24.5¢$7.74−$7.50−$4.21
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Yes2813¢12.5¢$3.46−$0.14$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?Yes1126¢26.5¢$2.84+$0.05$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes832¢10.5¢$0.83−$1.69$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes719¢9.5¢$0.70−$0.70−$0.68
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23?Yes5,7541.6¢0¢$0−$94−$2.72
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No34816.6¢0¢$0−$58$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes3329.7¢0¢$0−$32$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No26725.1¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?Yes25411.8¢0¢$0−$30−$0.79
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?No14215.5¢0¢$0−$22−$0.93
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Croatia?Yes8812.8¢0¢$0−$11−$0.29
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München8320.5¢0¢$0−$17−$0.40
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?No8132.9¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?Yes7616¢0¢$0−$12−$0.51
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes5221¢0¢$0−$11$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No4930¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Israel vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?Yes4812¢0¢$0−$5.78−$0.25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes4718¢0¢$0−$8.51$0
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes4243¢0¢$0−$18$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?No3421.8¢0¢$0−$7.42−$0.20
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?No2948.9¢0¢$0−$14−$16
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Israel end in a draw?No2728¢0¢$0−$7.59−$0.27
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Yes2236¢0¢$0−$7.79$0
Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany1815¢0¢$0−$2.67−$0.07
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Over820¢0¢$0−$1.68−$0.04

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?90¢47$4270%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢24$2270%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢112$10070%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢13$1270%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢6$5.1770%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢135$12070%60
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?20¢180$3670%60
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?24.5¢523$12870%60
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?19¢93$1870%60
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?44.9¢524$23570%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?37¢6$2.3170%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?36¢6$2.0570%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?37¢6$2.1070%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?36¢6$2.1570%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?38¢6$2.1570%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?37¢6$2.1070%60
BUY YesIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?35¢6$2.0070%60
SELL NoWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?98.1¢79$7870%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?88¢71$6270%60
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?88¢149$13170%60