sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,163

ToTheWindow

0xdf9…41f0
PnL 10k+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$34.9kvol $1.83M
PnL 30d+$2,396gains $19.2k · losses $10.1k
PnL 7d+$1,885win rate 7d 33.1%
Win rate53.3%adj 53.2% · 30d 38.6%
Open value$13.7kcash n/a
Positions64 / 544open / all-time
Max drawdown−10.6%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 32s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$35.4kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 53.3% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity89

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 64

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No3,05087.1¢91.5¢$2,791+$133+$178
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?No2,59287.3¢92.5¢$2,398+$134+$14
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Yes1,04470.8¢71.5¢$747+$7.07+$10
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?No71877.2¢85¢$610+$56$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?No1,12050.8¢53¢$594+$24$0
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?Yes97862.1¢57.5¢$563−$45−$12
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Yes4,0374.4¢9¢$361+$185$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Yes2,47711.7¢14.5¢$359+$68$0
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Yes64850.8¢54.5¢$353+$24$0
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?No32476.9¢90.5¢$294+$44$0
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?Yes57043.4¢49.5¢$282+$35$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?Yes37364.9¢72¢$269+$26+$20
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?Yes34057.5¢71¢$241+$46$0
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?No26076.4¢88.5¢$230+$32$0
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?No22992.9¢94.4¢$216+$3.28$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No18582.8¢95.3¢$176+$23$0
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?Yes26652.4¢65.5¢$174+$35$0
Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?No22058¢78¢$172+$44+$5.40
Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?No20777.5¢82.5¢$170+$10$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 10?Yes17682¢92¢$162+$18$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?Yes18281.7¢86¢$157+$7.86$0
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Yes26440.5¢53.5¢$141+$34$0
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Yes1,02610¢12.2¢$125+$23$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No15073¢83¢$125+$15$0
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Yes69816.7¢16.5¢$115−$1.42−$0.73
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?Yes11182.4¢98.5¢$109+$18+$1.13
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?Yes12778.4¢84.5¢$107+$7.80$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 12?Yes12384.3¢87¢$107+$3.30$0
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes29118.9¢36.5¢$106+$51+$18
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 16?Yes12079.5¢87.5¢$105+$9.60$0
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?No10088¢92¢$92+$4.00$0
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?No10089.5¢90.6¢$91+$1.09$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?Yes10076.6¢88¢$88+$11$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?Yes10071¢85¢$85+$14$0
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?No9887.5¢84.5¢$83−$2.91$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?Yes10078.4¢81¢$81+$2.60$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?No24033¢33.5¢$81+$1.20+$13
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?Yes9976.8¢80.5¢$79+$3.68+$3.19
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 13?Yes8079.3¢87¢$70+$6.20$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes8077¢82.5¢$66+$4.40$0
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Yes1,3497.3¢4.5¢$61−$38+$18
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?Yes1,2692.7¢4.5¢$56+$23$0
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?Yes6046.4¢8.5¢$51+$13$0
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Yes10026¢33¢$33+$7.00$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?Yes4080.3¢81.5¢$33+$0.47$0
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?No4075¢81¢$32+$2.40+$56
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No16812.5¢17.5¢$29+$8.29+$14
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026?Yes5564.9¢4.4¢$24−$3.25$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026?Yes8590.7¢2.7¢$23+$17$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026?Yes4664.5¢4.3¢$20−$1.07$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Italy by December 31, 2026?Yes8470.9¢2.3¢$19+$12$0
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Yes9626¢19.5¢$19−$6.26$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?Yes2055¢83.5¢$17+$5.70$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?Yes2076¢83.5¢$17+$1.50$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?Yes2079¢82¢$16+$0.60$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?Yes2077¢78.5¢$16+$0.30$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?Yes1006.9¢9.8¢$9.80+$2.91$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Yes1623.1¢5.2¢$8.41+$3.39$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?No1,1022.7¢0.7¢$7.71−$22$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Egypt by December 31, 2026?Yes1180.5¢3.2¢$3.73+$3.14$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?No175¢82¢$0.85+$0.07$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Yes101¢2.1¢$0.20+$0.10$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another European country by December 31, 2026?Yes230.7¢0.9¢$0.20+$0.04$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?No1,0001¢0¢$0−$10$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?5¢200$1053%68
BUY YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?5¢300$1553%68
BUY YesWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?5¢300$1553%68
BUY NoWill Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?77¢100$7753%68
BUY NoWill Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?77¢200$15453%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?90¢200$18053%68
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?89¢1,000$89053%68
BUY YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 31?81¢120$9753%68
BUY YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 29?79.1¢83$6653%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?88¢100$8853%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?89¢800$71253%68
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?94¢2,100$1,97453%68
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?94¢2,100$1,97453%68
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?33¢240$7953%68
BUY YesWill the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?53¢269$14353%68
BUY YesWill the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?60¢60$3653%68
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?80¢2,900$2,32053%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?90¢5$4.5053%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?90.1¢184$16653%68
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?93¢1,000$93053%68