sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,541

Festka

0xe02…5d08
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+SportPoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$126kvol $11.6M
PnL 30d+$105gains $253 · losses $6.80
PnL 7d+$1.39win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate71.1%adj 70.3% · 30d 60.0%
Open value$5,869cash n/a
Positions199 / 699open / all-time
Max drawdown−62.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 5mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$126kbelow peak −$21.8kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 71.1% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity38

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No3,85391¢95.6¢$3,681+$175$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No2,11086¢96¢$2,025+$210$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes36162.1¢4.1¢$15−$209−$0.17
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo2053.8¢72.5¢$15+$3.75$0
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No1070.5¢99.8¢$9.97+$2.92$0
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No1071.5¢99.3¢$9.93+$2.77$0
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?No1079.5¢96.5¢$9.64+$1.70$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No108¢96¢$9.60+$8.79$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo1080¢91.5¢$9.15+$1.15$0
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes1071¢72¢$7.20+$0.10$0
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes5559.4¢11¢$6.05−$27$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No682¢97.2¢$5.83+$0.91$0
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No566¢99.2¢$4.96+$1.66$0
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No593.1¢98.9¢$4.95+$0.29$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No579¢97.9¢$4.88+$0.94$0
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No561¢97.7¢$4.88+$1.83$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes59¢95.6¢$4.78+$4.33$0
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?No533¢95.5¢$4.78+$3.13$0
US recession by end of 2026?No572¢93.5¢$4.67+$1.07$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No574¢93.5¢$4.67+$0.97$0
Discord IPO before 2027?No55.2¢90.8¢$4.54+$4.28$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes581¢90.5¢$4.53+$0.47$0
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No540¢88¢$4.40+$2.40$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes542¢82.5¢$4.13+$2.02$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes2016.2¢8.5¢$1.70−$1.55$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No1516.3¢9.5¢$1.43−$1.02$0
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Yes1022.5¢9¢$0.90−$1.35$0
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes1061.5¢8¢$0.80−$5.35+$0.15
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes561¢13.5¢$0.68−$2.38$0
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes522¢11¢$0.55−$0.55−$0.45
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Yes159.7¢3.4¢$0.51−$0.94$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes517¢9.5¢$0.47−$0.38$0
Discord IPO before 2027?Yes585¢9.2¢$0.46−$3.79$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes1017¢4.1¢$0.41−$1.29$0
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Yes1014.5¢3.6¢$0.35−$1.09$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes522¢6.5¢$0.33−$0.78$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes1511.7¢2.2¢$0.32−$1.43$0
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes563¢5.1¢$0.25−$2.90$0
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes1031.5¢2.4¢$0.23−$2.92$0
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes555¢4.5¢$0.23−$2.52$0
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?Yes523¢4.3¢$0.21−$0.94−$0.15
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes510¢4.1¢$0.20−$0.30$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes153.5¢1.3¢$0.19−$0.34$0
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Yes105.3¢1.3¢$0.13−$0.41$0
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1023¢0.8¢$0.07−$2.23$0
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes528¢0.9¢$0.04−$1.36$0
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1023¢0.3¢$0.03−$2.27$0
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue DevilsSt. John's Red Storm100.0k34¢0¢$0−$34.0k$0
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?Yes76.4k48.9¢0¢$0−$37.4k+$15
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes71.8k4.6¢0¢$0−$3,269−$0.20
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Yes60.5k12.2¢0¢$0−$7,381+$10.4k
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Australian Open?Yes41.0k1.3¢0¢$0−$533−$49
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?Yes36.9k19.7¢0¢$0−$7,275$0
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 21?Yes33.4k27.2¢0¢$0−$9,072$0
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?Yes27.9k29¢0¢$0−$8,091$0
Will Solana reach $160 November 24-30?Yes21.0k10¢0¢$0−$2,104$0
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes20.0k9.6¢0¢$0−$1,924+$46
Will Solana reach $190 in November?Yes20.0k3.6¢0¢$0−$720$0
Will Solana reach $200 in November?Yes20.0k2.1¢0¢$0−$420$0
Will Solana reach $150 November 24-30?Yes19.9k46¢0¢$0−$9,165$0
Bucks vs. NuggetsBucks18.0k60.4¢0¢$0−$10.9k$0
76ers vs. MagicMagic17.3k41¢0¢$0−$7,103$0
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?No15.0k10¢0¢$0−$1,500$0
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes14.9k9¢0¢$0−$1,338−$69
Hawks vs. WarriorsWarriors14.6k70¢0¢$0−$10.2k$0
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?No13.0k92.2¢0¢$0−$12.0k$0
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 22?Yes10.2k27.1¢0¢$0−$2,757$0
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?Yes10,00024¢0¢$0−$2,400$0
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?No9,99461¢0¢$0−$6,097$0
Will Amy Allen win Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No9,61635.9¢0¢$0−$3,457$0
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes9,45565¢0¢$0−$6,146$0
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20?No8,90061¢0¢$0−$5,429$0
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?No5,84037.7¢0¢$0−$2,201$0
Rams vs. PanthersPanthers5,67017¢0¢$0−$964$0
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 27?Yes5,50613.2¢0¢$0−$725$0
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevZverev5,00051.8¢0¢$0−$2,592−$1,396
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?Yes5,00022.3¢0¢$0−$1,115+$494
Predators vs. OilersPredators4,95644¢0¢$0−$2,181$0
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes4,9173.9¢0¢$0−$194$0
Celtics vs. KingsKings4,35221¢0¢$0−$914−$29
49ers vs. EaglesEagles3,84063.6¢0¢$0−$2,444$0
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 23?Yes3,60333.8¢0¢$0−$1,217$0
Spurs vs. KnicksSpurs3,49752¢0¢$0−$1,818$0
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 26?Yes3,29033¢0¢$0−$1,086$0
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?Yes3,01138¢0¢$0−$1,143$0
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No3,01079¢0¢$0−$2,378$0
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?No2,96943.3¢0¢$0−$1,286$0
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08?No2,72770¢0¢$0−$1,909$0
Lakers vs. PelicansPelicans2,48033¢0¢$0−$818−$21
Nuggets vs. CelticsCeltics2,10075¢0¢$0−$1,575$0
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?Yes2,05817.5¢0¢$0−$360$0
Packers vs. BearsPackers1,95249.3¢0¢$0−$962$0
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?Yes1,93211.8¢0¢$0−$228−$7.95
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?Yes1,77634.9¢0¢$0−$620$0
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 22?Yes1,77043.4¢0¢$0−$768$0
Nuggets vs. KnicksNuggets1,77037¢0¢$0−$655$0
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20?Yes1,70035¢0¢$0−$595$0
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?Yes1,69944¢0¢$0−$748$0
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes1,62529.2¢0¢$0−$474−$37
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?No1,50064.9¢0¢$0−$974−$192

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?92.9¢604$56271%55
BUY YesWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?94.4¢224$21271%55
SELL YesWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?93.6¢3,074$2,87771%55
BUY YesWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?97.4¢4,671$4,54971%55
SELL YesWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?1.1¢49.0k$54171%55
SELL YesWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?17¢1,091$18571%55
BUY YesWill Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?63¢5,500$3,46571%55
SELL YesWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?5¢1,038$5271%55
SELL YesWill Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?7¢90.9k$6,36671%55
SELL YesWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?3.9¢5$0.2071%55
SELL NoWill Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?37¢37$1471%55
SELL YesWill Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?47.2¢39$1971%55
SELL YesWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?22¢20.0k$4,40571%55
BUY NoWill Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99.9¢2,606$2,60371%55
BUY NoWill Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99.9¢4,529$4,52471%55
BUY YesWill Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?36¢16$5.8171%55
BUY YesWill Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?35.1¢22$7.7871%55
BUY NoBackpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?99.9¢10.0k$9,99071%55
BUY NoBackpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?99.9¢20.0k$20.0k71%55Whale
SELL YesWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?10.3¢4,267$43971%55