PnL all-time+$8,262vol $621k
PnL 30d+$7,475gains $12.3k · losses $1,849
PnL 7d+$4,002win rate 7d 83.3%
Win rate70.5%adj 65.4% · 30d 71.4%
Open value$50.0kcash n/a
Positions8 / 69open / all-time
Max drawdown−46.2%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 2d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$12.9kbelow peak −$1,055Oct 11
SharpScore inputs
53/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 70.5% · shrunk toward 50%64
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable61
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d91
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity54
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Noclosed+$6,868Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yesclosed+$3,215Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yesopen+$1,912Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$1,553Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Noopen+$1,255
Worst markets
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$4,889Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yesopen−$2,530Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? · Noclosed−$1,270Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$975Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed−$602
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 41.2k | 90.5¢ | 93.5¢ | $38.5k | +$1,254 | +$0.21 | |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | Yes | 10.6k | 71.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $9,525 | +$1,912 | $0 | |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 3,504 | 55.4¢ | 54¢ | $1,892 | −$49 | $0 | |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? | Yes | 1,750 | 2.8¢ | 5.4¢ | $94 | +$45 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 5 | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $4.58 | −$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | Yes | 4,732 | 52.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,483 | −$47 | |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | Yes | 68 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | No | 10 | 93.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.30 | $0 |
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