sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,407

tja

0xe1b…1426
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$138kvol $2.81M
PnL 30d+$3,605gains $6,079 · losses $3,855
PnL 7d+$1,294win rate 7d 45.5%
Win rate69.9%adj 69.1% · 30d 62.2%
Open value$108kcash n/a
Positions57 / 1,539open / all-time
Max drawdown−6.1%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 5d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$160kbelow peak −$433Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

80/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 69.9% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d82
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity94

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 57

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No40.0k50¢92¢$36.8k+$16.8k$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No41.3k39.2¢81.5¢$33.6k+$17.5k+$2,962
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No5,00074.9¢83.5¢$4,175+$428$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes40.0k50¢8.1¢$3,220−$16.8k$0
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No2,07688.2¢97.2¢$2,018+$187$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No2,22268¢90.5¢$2,011+$500$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No2,57273.5¢77.5¢$1,993+$102$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No1,80074.1¢98.1¢$1,766+$432$0
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No1,72868.7¢87.5¢$1,512+$324$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No1,59583¢90.5¢$1,443+$120$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,86258.5¢69.7¢$1,298+$208$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No1,49536.7¢79.5¢$1,188+$640$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No1,12485.4¢97.6¢$1,097+$137$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No1,20084¢88.5¢$1,062+$54$0
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No1,07094.8¢97.4¢$1,041+$28$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No1,04774.6¢94.5¢$989+$209$0
Iran leadership change by November 30?No1,05091¢94¢$987+$32$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No1,00083¢97.8¢$978+$148$0
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No84193¢95.5¢$803+$21$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No1,51020.1¢51.2¢$774+$471$0
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No74393.3¢96.9¢$720+$27$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No66693¢94.5¢$629+$9.99$0
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?No60188.1¢96.9¢$582+$53$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No60059.7¢96.1¢$576+$218$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Yes68253¢80.5¢$549+$187$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic50078¢96.1¢$480+$90$0
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?No48184¢93.5¢$450+$46$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No45087¢93.6¢$421+$29$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No45591¢91¢$414−$0.15$0
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No43083.9¢94¢$405+$44$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No41788¢96.7¢$403+$36$0
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?No40088¢96.9¢$388+$36$0
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No41886¢85.5¢$358−$2.09+$492
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No50666.3¢68¢$344+$8.47$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes40067¢85.5¢$342+$74$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?No32095¢90.8¢$290−$14$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?No27195¢97.5¢$264+$6.63$0
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Yes4,65646.8¢5.5¢$256−$1,923−$14
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No27088.6¢94.5¢$255+$16$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No26882.1¢92.3¢$248+$27$0
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes88125.5¢22.5¢$198−$26$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes2,40013.2¢5.5¢$132−$186$0
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?No12491¢97.9¢$121+$8.54−$74
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Yes3,84419.1¢2.6¢$98−$637+$28
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No10091¢97.1¢$97+$6.05$0
Will Kaelan Dorr be the next White House Press Secretary?No9093.8¢99.8¢$90+$5.38$0
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?No33854.5¢26.2¢$88−$96−$61
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No15040¢54.5¢$82+$22$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes80026¢8.5¢$68−$140$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes40015¢10.5¢$42−$18$0
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes4934¢85¢$41+$25$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes14817¢12.5¢$18−$6.64$0
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No2091¢93.5¢$18+$0.49$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?Yes10011¢15.5¢$16+$4.50$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes20054¢6.5¢$13−$95$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes3014¢42.5¢$13+$8.55$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?No473¢37¢$1.37−$1.33$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?80¢2,500$2,00070%80Sharp
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?60.2¢64$3970%80Sharp
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?48.4¢338$16370%80Sharp
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?22.4¢614$13870%80Sharp
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?13.9¢110$1570%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?0.3¢175$0.5370%80Sharp
BUY No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?85.7¢184$15770%80Sharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?76¢500$38070%80Sharp
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?76¢571$43470%80Sharp
BUY NoWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?86¢130$11270%80Sharp
BUY NoWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?63¢373$23570%80Sharp
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?78¢433$33870%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?94.2¢266$25170%80Sharp
SELL YesWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?10¢350$3570%80Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?34¢12$3.9770%80Sharp
BUY NoWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?32¢865$27770%80Sharp
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?50¢653$32770%80Sharp
SELL YesWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?50.4¢1,580$79770%80Sharp
SELL YesWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?61.8¢1,413$87470%80Sharp
SELL YesWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?63.3¢3,251$2,05770%80Sharp