sharpside
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Traders/Rank #19,565

0x84828283773829

0xe38…50c8
PoliticsSportOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$16.8kvol $793k
PnL 30d−$10.7kgains $2,938 · losses $7,606
PnL 7d−$638win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate41.8%adj 42.3% · 30d 35.0%
Open value$8,965cash n/a
Positions13 / 340open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$17.7kbelow peak −$18.0kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 41.8% · shrunk toward 50%6
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable84
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,234 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yesclosed+$1,823Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,788Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,450Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score · Yesclosed+$1,262

Worst markets

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Noclosed−$4,759Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yesopen−$2,851Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$2,685Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,645Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,085

Open positions · 13

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes14.9k60.7¢41.5¢$6,173−$2,851$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes4,00037.7¢26.5¢$1,060−$450−$2,235
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes5,68414¢17.5¢$995+$197$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,77014¢9¢$160−$88$0
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?Yes1,7147¢7.5¢$129+$8.57$0
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No24141¢43¢$104+$4.77$0
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes23040.5¢43.3¢$100+$6.45$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes6,2671.4¢1.3¢$78−$12$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes34021¢22.5¢$76+$5.10$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2,6323.8¢2.2¢$57−$43$0
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes62112.4¢4.3¢$26−$51$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes3504.5¢2.3¢$7.88−$7.88$0
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?No25062¢0¢$0−$155$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.9¢2,632$2342%28
SELL YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?25.3¢4,000$1,01042%28
BUY YesWill any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?11.9¢167$2042%28
BUY YesWill Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?63¢900$56742%28
BUY YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?3.8¢789$3042%28
BUY YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?3.8¢1,842$7042%28
SELL NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?6.3¢700$4442%28
SELL YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?56.5¢8,756$4,95142%28
SELL YesWill the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?0.4¢1,200$4.2142%28
SELL YesWill the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?0.7¢3,482$2342%28
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?13¢700$9142%28
SELL YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?28.7¢4,123$1,18442%28
SELL YesWill the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?55.9¢200$11242%28
SELL YesWill the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?22.9¢300$6942%28
SELL YesWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?99.9¢700$69942%28
BUY YesAnthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?7¢1,714$12042%28
SELL YesWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?1.6¢1,300$2042%28
BUY YesWill the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?56.9¢100$5742%28
BUY YesWill the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?72.2¢350$25342%28
SELL YesWill OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?7.4¢2,042$15142%28