sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,737

TheRealWarMonger

0xe47…e7eb
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$6,286vol $7.25M
PnL 30d+$12.2kgains $20.3k · losses $16.8k
PnL 7d+$397win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate76.3%adj 75.2% · 30d 88.6%
Open value$60.4kcash n/a
Positions22 / 645open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 9d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$9,014below peak −$55.3kOct 10

SharpScore inputs

41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 76.3% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d68
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 22

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No18.3k89.8¢90.5¢$16.6k+$136+$102
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No9,15492.4¢85.5¢$7,826−$634$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No8,16493.4¢93.5¢$7,633+$11$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No5,00094.2¢92.5¢$4,625−$85$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes4,35083.6¢88.9¢$3,869+$232$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes4,34582¢83.5¢$3,628+$66+$6.73
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No3,80093.6¢94¢$3,572+$16$0
New pandemic in 2026?No2,90093.4¢95.5¢$2,770+$62+$26
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes3,00090.5¢77.5¢$2,325−$390$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?No2,00098.3¢100¢$1,999+$33$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes3,00071.8¢47.3¢$1,417−$737$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No1,55785¢85.5¢$1,331+$7.78$0
Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?No90096¢99.5¢$895+$31$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?No50098.1¢98.4¢$492+$1.25$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No49691¢91.5¢$453+$2.48$0
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?No40096.6¢97.5¢$390+$3.60$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No40089¢88.5¢$354−$2.00$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No12084.3¢92.5¢$111+$9.78−$32
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?No4094¢96.5¢$39+$1.00$0
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No13574.1¢26¢$35−$65$0
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?No1981¢74.5¢$15−$1.27$0
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?No1052¢75¢$7.50+$2.30$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?99.9¢8,312$8,30476%41
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?99.7¢401$40076%41
BUY NoBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?99.7¢2,931$2,92276%41
SELL NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?95.5¢2,500$2,38776%41
BUY NoTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?99.7¢832$83076%41
SELL NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?92¢400$36876%41
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?99.7¢18.0k$17.9k76%41Whale
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?99.5¢300$29976%41
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?27¢19.8k$5,35376%41
BUY NoIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?99.3¢200$19976%41
BUY NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?99.8¢1,800$1,79676%41
SELL NoFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?99.3¢10$9.5776%41
BUY NoWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?99¢901$89276%41
SELL NoFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?99.3¢900$89476%41
BUY YesFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?52¢200$10476%41
BUY NoWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?98.3¢3,052$3,00076%41
BUY NoNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?96.6¢300$29076%41
BUY NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?99.4¢270$26876%41
BUY NoWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?48¢200$9676%41
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?37¢3,000$1,11076%41