PnL all-time+$573vol $115k
PnL 30d+$26gains $64 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$63win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate45.7%adj 46.4% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$3,673cash n/a
Positions6 / 113open / all-time
Max drawdown−89.2%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$807below peak −$410Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 45.7% · shrunk toward 50%16
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable68
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity11
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,296Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,138Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? · Noclosed+$1,074Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? · Noclosed+$760Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026? · Yesclosed+$521
Worst markets
Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? · Yesopen−$804Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026? · Yesclosed−$455Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? · Yesopen−$451Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? · Yesclosed−$390Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? · Yesopen−$352
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | Yes | 3,900 | 92.9¢ | 94.1¢ | $3,670 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8 | 18¢ | 43.6¢ | $3.27 | +$1.92 | $0 | |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? | Yes | 6,691 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$464 | +$13 | |
| Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | Yes | 5,718 | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$680 | −$124 | |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$352 | $0 | |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026? | Yes | 500 | 20¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$4.00 |
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